Sunday, August 05, 2007

No name U-hauls?

Its pretty typical on my weekend jog to go by four to six U-hauls. So that inspired me to finally update my U-haul index and the results showed less pressure out of state than a year ago. Huh? By the way, I have zero evidence if these are moving people in or out of state. But there is a new trend: no name moving trucks! Since its been one year since I first did a quick U-haul index, its time to update that too!

The old U-haul index:
http://recomments.blogspot.com/2006/08/uhaul-index-job-flow-directionality.html

This weekend there are five name brand self moving trucks parked along my jogging route (U-haul, Ryder). Since its August, that probably isn't an indicator. But I also went by six "no-name" moving trucks. Some old (one obviously ex-Ryder), some pretty new. Anyone heard anything of this trend? I've seen the "no-name" moving trucks two weekends in a row... It could be that the drivers moved into the neighborhood (cheaper apartments three blocks away...)?

Now for the U-haul directionality index
a redux of:

90277 to Austin: $1,236 return $536. The year ago was $6,439 Return: $575. So the HUGE premium to Austin is tapering off. The Austin to Redondo beach is similar to a year ago.

90277 to Phoenix: $456 return $352 a year ago: $670 Return: $131

90277 to Spokane, WA: $3,875 return $1,137 a year ago: $4,845 Return:$199

90277 to Las Vegas: $381 return $379: year ago $638 Return: $226

Conclusions:
1) The premium to leave the state is dropping. Is this due to less demand or a more efficient truck return system? I do not know.

2) In the case of Las Vegas, the premium is gone! The $2 difference is probably for the higher rent at the south bay truck pick up location.

Note: I picked the largest truck for pickup on a Saturday (8/11/2007) just as I did a year ago. Yes, this does maximize the directionality premium. But that's what I want, to see if there is a strong directionality premium.

The results were not as I expected. I expected premiums to be higher to get out of state. Does this imply fewer jobs in other states? Are the no-name companies driving down U-haul rates? Has U-haul restructured to get their trucks in/out of an area more efficiently? For $3,875, you can make quite a profit off a moving truck with a hired driver to Spokane. Does anyone have a good u-haul index blog link?

Got popcorn?
Neil

2 comments:

Justin said...

Quote by Neil
"But I also went by six "no-name" moving trucks. Some old (one obviously ex-Ryder), some pretty new. Anyone heard anything of this trend?"

Around my way a U-Haul dealership sells old trucks that have passed their operational limit before they start to break down (about 10 years old or 50,000 miles)

This could be the case, some discount company bought the trucks and is usng them for moving.
This is not exactly competition for U-Haul, they figure they make more money selling the trucks than they would by renting them out.

wannabuy said...

This is not exactly competition for U-Haul, they figure they make more money selling the trucks than they would by renting them out.

I understand fleet renewal... But several of these trucks had never been Ryders or Uhauls... trucks far too new to have served duty with the major rental companies.

What I wonder is "Has a grey market moving service sprung up" that effectively caps the highest U-haul rates? You no longer see the $3k to $6k rates. Why? I'm speculating... but remain curious. Something has dropped the top rates...

Got popcorn?
Neil