I'm working on an inventory/sales post. But lack of sleep (new baby) is delaying it.
But look what I found:
www.houston.org/blackfenders/10AW001.pdf
US job losses are here year on year. If that isn't a recession...
LA is leading the drop in jobs.
Houston is growing the quickest(no wonder the PDF was found on houston.org).
DC is doing pretty well.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
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Someday I'll buy a home. That will be after home prices get sane. The credit markets are tightening up; that will only drive up requirements for down payments. Thus home prices will continue to dive due to reduced competition from specuvestors and the lack of a qualified buyers pool. Notice how home sales rates are plummeting; that will only drive prices further. The bottom? Probably 2011 to 2014. When you do buy, buy smart.
Blog Archive
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2008
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August
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- Troubled Banks
- CR chart on seasonality of home prices
- Bank Issues
- Case Shiller for June Released
- National July Sales/Ineventory news out
- Illegal Immegrants returning home?
- 2008 Job losses
- Best Places to Earn a living
- Apartment Buildings lose immunity to housing chill
- Repost of this month's inventory, affordability, a...
- Weak Financial Institutions
- Ad revenue declining
- Affordability, Inventory, and SoCal foreclosures
- Major Bank to Fail? Secondary market almost Stopped.
- Job growth
- Default distribution
- Calm Before Storm: Ted Spread
- Spain pledges economic stimulus
- Foreclosures
- MLS listings are missing large amounts of distress...
- Retail For Lease
- Inventory
- Map of Prime foreclosures
- Strong US productivity
- Auto Sales Plunge
- Another Bank Failure... Well its Friday!
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August
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Links to Housing blogs
- Ben Jones excellent RE blog
- Bubble Meter (Washington DC)
- Bubbletracking (inventory of homes in bubble markets)
- Calculated risk: bubble economics
- Implode-o-meter: what lender failed today?
- Irving Housing: I have friend in OC. ;)
- Jim the Realtor (a bearish realtor!)
- Sacramento Landing
- Sacramento Real Estate Statistics(See a hot spot burn in numbers)
- South Bay beaches bubble (where I want to buy. Great blog)
About Me
- wannabuy
- I love to parent, read, ski, travel, and scuba dive. I've switched from blogging about real estate to ebooks. As much of an optimist as I've been on ebooks, their growth is typically better than my predictions! My main prediction is 50% ebook market share by end of January 2013. Any of my charts may be re-used with just a link to this blog (blog or specific post is up to whomever borrows the graphs). Neil
5 comments:
As I keep harping - I am convinced this is the big reason we are seeing nationwide discrepancies in the bubble bust.
This is the reason LA is imploding (high end too)
This is the reason LA imploded during the early 90s
This is the reason Prince William County (where all the immigrant labor lived) is down 40% YOY
This is the reason why the rest of the DC area is doing ok (relatively speaking)
If we start losing jobs, expect to see a big leg down in DC prices. Without it, I think its just mild to moderate drops from here on out.
How are you doing Neil?
Houston may be experiencing job growth right now due to the recent commodity boom. You might find this story amusing, but there is a mini-bubble boom going on in this area as a result:
20 year olds with no work experience making $70K on oil fields
If oil continues to reverse course and correct very hard and/or crash (maybe due to global slowdown), Houston and other commodity-intensive areas could pop too.
Bearmaster,
Houston is also taking LA's high end manufacturing sector. Will Houston have a recession too? Of course. Yes, it will be commodities based too. But I'm seeing manufacturing jobs by the THOUSANDS heading off to Houston.
The Anon. It is an interesting counter point. As I've pointed out before, I will post the good and the bad.
Due to the (near) end of the secondary mortgage market, its the high end that will be hit worst. Even DC went to high price to earning multiples. BTW, do you know the income spread of the new jobs for DC?
I'm in shock how many jobs LA lost. I know LA is in bad shape, but that was a little worse than I thought (for today, I'm still bearish for the future).
Got Popcorn?
Neil
"Due to the (near) end of the secondary mortgage market, its the high end that will be hit worst. Even DC went to high price to earning multiples. BTW, do you know the income spread of the new jobs for DC?"
No doubt, but remember the credit crunch has already given us big drops in the high end Loudoun County. Sales and junk loan stats indicate that area got much more out of whack than close in high end (Arlington).
We are a year into this credit crunch and the discrepancy between the two high end areas has not narrowed. Everyone says, well, distressed market status will do it, or Jumbo spreads will do it, or Indymac failing will do it - yet it keeps chuggin along at 4-5 months of inventory, few foreclosures, etc.
Note - I have NO idea why this divergance started, but I have pretty much given up on the "credit crunch" evening the two areas out. Yes both areas may get worse, but the discrepancy will continue.
The question now (in my mind) is will job loss sink a market that seems to handle the lack of credit pretty well. As I see it, that is the only way to get the big drops in areas resistant to the credit crunch...
As to the income spread - unfortunately I do not know. If I had to guess (and its a pure guess), based on what I have been reading, the big winner is govt consulting/contracting type jobs. Average salary on those jobs is probably around 80K. Nothing to sneeze at for sure, but not probably enough to really afford close in housing prices.
Will a discrepancy continue? Sure. But now everything drops. If 80k is truly a typical salary... prices have a bit more to drop. We'll see.
I just see tons of aerospace (or skilled manufacturing jobs) going to the three major growth centers: Huntsville, Houston, and Colorado Springs.
This credit crunch starts to get interesting soon. (We're not yet in the really interesting 18 months. We will be within 90 days.)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
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