Saturday, August 09, 2008


A few graphs. My first child has been born and that's keeping me... from sleeping! (And blogging.) Mom and Child are doing extremely well. :) So with very little comment, I'm posting inventory graphs. The one big change is high foreclosure areas are seeing a sharp drop in inventory. But that's a false drop in inventory; soon enough the homes will be back on the market. However, I do expect banks will market a la builders: One MLS listing for dozens of homes.

Why am I still posting? To stay sane! 24/7 feeding/cleaning/codling doesn't activate the mind. Oh... I was going through the graphs seeing how the squiggles indicate trends... but I'm not going to be able to post concisely tonight, so I will do so another month.

Friends are still listening to Realtors (tm). Somehow they still have credit with people! Sigh... I *think* I just convinced a good friend to wait six months before buying. Six months in an area dropping 2% per month! Yet the Realtors were able to convince them that its not really dropping. Sigh... (These friends also recently had a kid.) The "it will drop enough to put you child through your alma mater" seemed to be the winning argument.

How do I know this? The Credit Crunch. LA is dependent on "Hollywood" and Hollywood is dependent upon suckers loaning them money on favorable terms. In 2009, far fewer movies are going to be shot. I'm very curious to see the terms of financing for 2010 movies. We're looking at a multi-Billion dollar haircut in 2009. Mostly by cutting known unprofitable projects that somehow still get funded.

The next big hit is going to be the California budget. That just scares me. That budget will effect the whole US economy. In general, when states cut spending is when a recession is recognized.

Expect my posts to be infrequent for a while. I'll focus on:
1. Inventory
2. Real Estate emotions
3. Case-Shiller.

Got Popcorn?