Thursday, August 14, 2008


Foreclosures continue to climb

During the great depression, about 25% of all the homes in the US were foreclosed upon. I do not think we'll hit even close to that limit. However, foreclosures continue to climb.

Ok, I cry uncle. I didn't expect Las Vegas to be the first to be *almost* at 1% of the properties in foreclosure. 1 in 106 homes are in some process of foreclosure in Nevada!

California: 1 in 182 (Merced is the worst hit with 1 in 73, Stockton/Modesto at 1 in 82)
Florida: 1 in 186 (Cape Coral, with 1 in 64 wins the national booby prize)
Arizona: 1 in 195

Now here is a quote that scares me:
But, according to Sharga, that decrease was helped along by rule changes in Massachusetts and Maryland that prevented lenders from issuing filings for up to an additional 90 days after borrowers first fall behind in their payments.
Would you lend where you cannot foreclose? Probably not without some 'meat in the game' to cover the added costs. :)

Oh wait:
"Now, both states are creeping back up," he said. "The 90-day lull in Massachusetts is being followed by a whole run of properties [in delinquency]."

What about "Immune" Arlinton?
Well, a triple cluster of foreclosures. But this quote stuck out:
“There have been very few home sales,” she said, “Because people haven’t really come to reality and dropped their prices enough … [But] you hear about some of these whole developments out in Fairfax or Loudoun where you’ve got 20 to 30 percent of the houses foreclosed. It’s not like that.”

Diffusion theory of Real Estate... it always holds true in the long term. :)

NY foreclosures up 44% But a small fraction overall. But this is global. You can google and find the increase in Britain, Spain, Australia, and most locations in the world.

Just think... the Alt-A resets do not really start until the spring. Those loans were mostly into premium areas.

Not to mention, credit overall is tightening. Quite a few banks are one the watch list: Downey Savings, WaMu, Chevy Chase, Wachovia (note: Can they BK their divisions off and keep the main bank going? They seem to have done brilliant firewalls a la their Bluepoint Insurance group.)

Got Popcorn?

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