I have reason to suspect that a coworker I really like is about to go into default on two properties; the home and an investment. Basically, this individual has used up all of the reserves trying to keep from losing the investment house and thus will now probably lose both. I've talked about how many of my coworkers invested heavily in real estate during the bubble. Now we're finding out who was swimming naked; its not a pretty picture.
This brings no joy to me. Its not one thing that convinces me that 2009 will be the year of the greatest price drops; its an accumulation of evidence. Hopefully this snippet gives you some insight into why I'm hunkered down to survive a bad year.
That bad year includes Christmas. The humor regarding Christmas is pretty dark on more than one blog today (e.g., CR). In fact, its downright gallows humor. Like all gallows humor, this isn't about wanting it to happen; its about expressing the known downside in a way to relieve anxiety. I think the bear community is seeing the writing on the walls. Expect Christmas 2008 to Suck (from a retail sales standpoint). Its not a question of if we're in a recession, but where we go from here.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
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4 comments:
I think I started it all last Saturday with my "No Christmas" post. The weird thing is going to be partially stocked shelves. There won't even be bargains for we cheapskates.
It sucks when it happens to somebody you know, doesn't it.
Bearmaster,
It does suck. I know a lot of good people who will be hurt.
Rob Dawg,
I think the reason its taken off is that it makes too much sense that we finally have to have a non-overspending Christmas. Yikes... we all knew it would get to the scary time.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
"Like all gallows humor, this isn't about wanting it to happen; its about expressing the known downside in a way to relieve anxiety."
I actually disagree, CR is poisoned by an overabundance of negativity. Every time CR tries to show some tiny, miniscule, shred of a recovery, the peanut gallery responds by calling him a traitor, an idiot or whatever, and with a resounding NO WE WANT MORE BLOOD!!! It is really sick.
Kinda like the way the peanut gallery is now rooting for fannie & freddie to fail. In the abstract I like what that would do to Arlington prices - why not take an extra 10% off!!! However, when I consider the potential cost on the overall economy & the stability of this country...Im not so sure that extra 10% is worth it anymore.
Apparently no one over there has ever heard of a pyrrhic victory.
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