If you're reading this blog you probably know about the implode-o-meter.
http://mortgageimplode.com/
Since so many regions have home prices far disconnected from fundamentals, I honestly expect this list to break 100. Easily. Heck, its peak will probably be around 250. Yikes!
Florida and Michigan will take the worst hit. But California, Phoenix, and Las Vegas will certainly "enjoy the same hangover."
Got popcorn?
Neil
3 comments:
Gotta figure at least a hundred little broker offices for every failed lender, too.
I don't doubt 250 one bit. Here are some more questions to think about:
- When all is said and done, how many "big guys" will be on the list? I'll guess around 3, assuming no lender bailout.
- What's the undercount on that site? No chance they're catching them all (heh, ML-pokemon-O-meter).
- Can we use the site to guesstimate a market bottom? I'm betting we can. We should track the 2nd derivative (change in trend) of that number. When it turns positive (trend is fewer lenders going under) for X amount of time, that may be another indicator of a good time to buy.
Can we use the site to guesstimate a market bottom? I'm betting we can. We should track the 2nd derivative (change in trend) of that number. When it turns positive (trend is fewer lenders going under) for X amount of time, that may be another indicator of a good time to buy.
Probably. Thankfully, real estate moves slow. The broker failures tend to happen in waves. Thus the data must be smoothed over extended periods of time to denote such trends.
TJ,
Oh, there will be an army of unemployed from this at all of the little offices... so much for a tight commercial RE market too..
Got popcorn?
Neil
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