Thursday, April 19, 2007

Coworker to Jacksonville Florida



A coworker has announced his and his wife's transition to Jacksonville Florida. Why? Just no hope of buying in California. Not to mention there are engineering jobs there (for the Navy, working destroyer retrofits).

What interested me is that when he mentioned the relocation, toward some family, for the purpose of affording a home... everyone took that as the most natural thing to do. No one expects a young engineer to stick around California and buy...

Oh, my company is buying down points and doing whatever they can to retain young talent... but since a 70% wage increase isn't about to happen... people leave.

I did chat with the coworker and believe that our conversations are a small part of why he is going to lease for a year instead of buying right away. I do expect him to buy within that year; but any delay over six months should save him a bundle.

Now to find the link from the NYT that hints that illegal labor is leaving the state in droves (due to the construction slowdown). Question: how long until the yuppies at the cocktail parties notice? I still think by June everyone will know that real estate is dropping. But when will they know its recession and people do leave California en mass? I think that realization won't happen until August to October. (Sorry for the wide window, but predicting when people recognize something isn't always easy.)

A quick comment on real estate emotions: we're still not in fear. Not in the crowds I rotate in. That includes the flippers I know, the blue collar machinists, the engineers, the doctors (family friends), etc. Soon enough.

Oh, expect fewer posts from yours truly. Today is T-minus one month to my wedding!

Got popcorn?
Neil

16 comments:

Rob Dawg said...

No one trying to convince to to wait a year to get married? You'd probably get a better deal. Sorry, couldn't resist.

The real illegal immigrant housing killer is when they start walking away from their houses and worse; doubling up on their remaining houses.

As to engineering; spot on. There's a reason we don't make good things anymore. Instead of paying our engineers enough to live in a nice place we pay our bean counters to move companies to Az.

tj & the bear said...

I doubt they'll buy within the year, too. Sure, that'll be the plan, but once they see prices dropping continuously they'll be scared to catch a falling knife.

I expect the fear will come about the same time the stock markets tank.

p.s.: I'll believe the fewer posts when I see it (over at HBB). :-)

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Congrats, Neil! I've enjoyed reading your comments on the real estate issues. I've been married 20 years this year. I like being married.
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wannabuy said...

p.s.: I'll believe the fewer posts when I see it (over at HBB). :-)

I am posting less! Really! ;)

I agree, they'll probably wait. But if I can delay at least six months... I'll feel better.

Rumor is that Countrywide is no longer doing stated income. True? I don't know. I know they still have 50% DTI loans... but if the liar part is gone, so soon will the over-leveraged part. ;)

Got popcorn?
Neil

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