tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27885619.post6321573451575913528..comments2023-11-03T02:41:15.906-07:00Comments on Real Estate comments: Implode-o-meter count at 62wannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27885619.post-59918691362162048492007-04-23T16:48:00.000-07:002007-04-23T16:48:00.000-07:00Can we use the site to guesstimate a market bottom...<I> Can we use the site to guesstimate a market bottom? I'm betting we can. We should track the 2nd derivative (change in trend) of that number. When it turns positive (trend is fewer lenders going under) for X amount of time, that may be another indicator of a good time to buy. </I><BR/><BR/>Probably. Thankfully, real estate moves slow. The broker failures tend to happen in waves. Thus the data must be smoothed over extended periods of time to denote such trends.<BR/><BR/>TJ,<BR/>Oh, there will be an army of unemployed from this at all of the little offices... so much for a tight commercial RE market too..<BR/><BR/>Got popcorn?<BR/>Neilwannabuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27885619.post-72438069406171570582007-04-22T20:38:00.000-07:002007-04-22T20:38:00.000-07:00I don't doubt 250 one bit. Here are some more que...I don't doubt 250 one bit. Here are some more questions to think about:<BR/><BR/>- When all is said and done, how many "big guys" will be on the list? I'll guess around 3, assuming no lender bailout.<BR/><BR/>- What's the undercount on that site? No chance they're catching them all (heh, ML-pokemon-O-meter).<BR/><BR/>- Can we use the site to guesstimate a market bottom? I'm betting we can. We should track the 2nd derivative (change in trend) of that number. When it turns positive (trend is fewer lenders going under) for X amount of time, that may be another indicator of a good time to buy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27885619.post-39306830132601105432007-04-22T16:35:00.000-07:002007-04-22T16:35:00.000-07:00Gotta figure at least a hundred little broker offi...Gotta figure at least a hundred little broker offices for every failed lender, too.TJandTheBearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10735388072841457108noreply@blogger.com