Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Did the dam break?




It "feels like the dam has broken." As of this second, I cannot tell you what changed in the last week... but the conversations and attitudes are different.

Five coworkers have come into my office today telling me how they talked people out of buying. A few even came into my office to be talked out of buying a home today. This isn't normal... One is normally notable. Five?!?

Three coworkers have confided in me they're transfering out of state in the last three work days due to cost of living issues. That's more than normal in a year! (We have a loyal group.)

Maybe its just my company... maybe just so-cal.

But something changed over the weekend.

This actually has me... concerned. The popcorn bucket has been put down. Something just "feels" really different this week.

Maybe its because I've heard of a few more acquantances being laid off. :(

Maybe because one co-worker had three neighbors laid off last week?

Something has changed... or has it? I think a big change... But I cannot tell you exactly what.

Neil

4 comments:

Rob Dawg said...

It was a good party but it's over. Ventura is going to be a bleak place but Orange County... there aren't words for when next September little kids are left crying in half empty classrooms where all their friends are gone and the rest don't speak English.

baddriver said...

As I sit here voting for the worst (votefortheworst.com) I have to say things on the east coast are quite a bit different. One of my good friends started a new job in NYC yesterday, and within the last week my roommate got an accepted job offer advancing in her field. While I agree it is appropriate that you put the popcorn bucket down, especially after the last few posts, it just doesn't seem appropriate all the time. I still love reading one of your comments on The Housing Bubble Blog followed by "Got Popcorn". That is the appropriate venue for that comment, so please don't stop.

I have mixed feelings about what I believe to be an upcoming recession. I have been awaiting this for months, like other housing bubble haters but now that justice is slowly beginning to be served I am not as filled as I thought I would be with the sight of FB's getting what they deserve. Well I do enjoy that but I am not enjoying the consequences of the recession this is bringing about. I worry about my family's and friends security around jobs. I worry about my own job. I wish there was a way to hedge against this with my job as easy as it is my 401k and personal savings.

Keep up the good and entertaining work Neil!

wannabuy said...

but Orange County... there aren't words for when next September little kids are left crying in half empty classrooms where all their friends are gone and the rest don't speak English.

rob dawg, you are 100% correct. OC is going to change incredibly fast before the next school year. Its... going to be sad. I have a friend scrambling to find work down there. Its... going to change fast.

Baddriver,
I too wish there was a way to hedge the huge risk we'll see away. If you find a way, tell me!

As to the popcorn... Its just my catch phrase and a way for people finding this blog to know who I am (without knowing my last name). What's going to happen in late 2007 through mid 2009 is going to be quite scary.

But something in the "feel" has changed in the circles I travel in. I really wish I could describe it better. Am I making this up or is there a real change occurring? It sounds like the east coast is ok.

We will see...
Neil

Rob Dawg said...

The early signs abound. Late model used luxury cars in upscale neighborhoods at unrealistically high "For Sale" prices. Sweet little '02 SLK320 on my street. Normally these are traded in to the MB dealer on another lease or purchase preserving the aura of high resale value but a peek at cars dot com shows dozens of these, many sitting on dealers' lots. The one here wants $22,500 the "True Value Price" at Kelly Blue Book. I'm thinking more like low wholesale, say $16,000. That's a microcosm of the reality gap these people are facing. When it dawns on them it will be sad. All of a sudden the imagine 10 years of $70,000/yr to live in a house that will not keep up with inflation and will only buy down $200,000 of mortgage and they get scared.

You are sensing the same things I am.