Look at the graph! Las Vegas is falling apart! At the current rate, we're looking at a 60%+ price drop in 2008. I do not believe it can continue at this rate; then again, a year ago if you had told me
If Pheonix's linear increase in price drops continues, it will match Las Vegas' current price drops for March (note: Case-Shiller data lags by two months. January data was just released).
Some cities are holding into the "steady state burn" I predicted. But look how many have one month losses above 3%!
Scary graph...
Update/edit:
And for those who want to see a really scary trend. The price drop acceleration in Phoenix is like gravity: A constant acceleration:
Got Popcorn?
Neil
5 comments:
Gosh, it's almost like someone predicted a "gap down" event this spring.
rob dawg said...
This is the "stair step" I've been predicting. A sudden downdraft followed by a grinding multi-quarter 0.5-1.5% steady loss environment. This is going to trap a whole lot of ordinary folk who were thinking of getting out with their skin and nothing else.
2/09/2008 10:06:00 AM
Rob Dawg,
Yep! I'm too lazy to find my prediction, but it was a 2.5% to 3%... so Las Vegas is surprising me a bit!
But all of the bubble markets are tanking. I'll do more Case-Shiller analysis when I have time.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
No offense, the more the merrier. You might wonder why i don't do a lot with C-S except criticize. It is what it is and IMO working with their numbers doesn't say anything new. I could be wrong but I just consider C-S as derivative as you can get before methodology introduces false signals like the stupid global warmists are finally discovering.
Rob Dawg,
Here we disagree. C-S tracks regional trends very well. Compared to anything else, its 100X more useful. Quite bluntly, its a good indicator of when to buy. Yes, the per home error is 10%, but by region it normalizes out by considering the improvements.
As to global warming... that's another story. I piss off scientists when I ask them how they account for the earth's eliptical/circular orbit when normalizing their models. ;)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
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