Saturday, March 15, 2008

Inventory status

I prefer to look at inventory in graphical form that compares year over year inventory. I do this by plotting a graph for each area with a different color for each year. In order to get enough historical data, I reference a number of housing bubble blogs who have been taking the data for many years. In some cases, the REIC itself is a good source of the data, but only on a end of month basis. My preference is to use the near-real time inventory of Ziprealty. Why? Numerous blogs use it as a reference and anyone can log on and look at the data



National inventory keeps climbing. The region of Ziprealty coverage seems to have stabilized on the zones it covers. So, within reasonable tolerances, changes in Ziprealty inventory are mirroring the National Changes. However, it is but a subset of national inventory. Expect more negative price pressure in 2008 than in prior years.

Moving onto looking into individual large cities. Regular readers know that DC prices, per Case-Shiller, have dropped an amazing amount. Since sales are down (previous posts here), the normal climb in inventory only means one thing: buyers can be pickier.






For Houston, the inventory trend is pretty flat. Its certainly elevated, but it isn't adding to the burn. So Houston home prices will go with credit availablility.










Starting to break down a region more, we see that Arlington is building inventory faster than in the past. When we also look at sales...











This picture speaks for itself. Sales are weak. We're past the panic buying. Welcome to the new housing market.




Here is LA's inventory. Its elevated compared to prior years but flat. What I'm seeing in the details is fewer homes listed in the Antelope Valley but more in the beach cities.

What about sales?




Speaks for itself... What about the larger region?






Oh... What about the largest state of the union as a whole?







I'm not doing too much comment this article as the trend is pretty obvious. We've all heard the news on the various I-banks having cash flow issues. Its all due to the real estate investment mania. I'm waiting to buy for a long time. You? Homes are becoming a very illiquid asset. With inventory turn times in many places measure in years, it will take a sharp drop in prices to restart the market.

Import inflation and domestic deflation.

Got Popcorn?
Neil

6 comments:

Marco said...

That is really good statistical analysis.......Good work

For Sale By Owner

bearmaster said...

If what is happening in Redondo Beach is happening elsewhere, the graphs probably understate inventory to some degree.

Although Zip Realty contains many duplicates, my experience is that a lot of listings that have expired and no longer show up in Zip Realty nevertheless are still active listings.

wannabuy said...

Although Zip Realty contains many duplicates, my experience is that a lot of listings that have expired and no longer show up in Zip Realty nevertheless are still active listings.

Not only that, I'm seeing in other areas homes were the listing has expired, but the sign is kept up "just in case a buyer is found." I expect these homes to be relisted by June.


Got Popcorn?
Neil

smf said...

What about the number of listings that just simply gave up? Why bother listing when you already know foreclosure is your only option?

Or you still have those (and I know some) that are waiting for the market to come back, lest they 'give their house away'.

wannabuy said...

Or you still have those (and I know some) that are waiting for the market to come back, lest they 'give their house away'.

Lol. Hey, as long as they pay the mortgage, let them wait. But who puts their home up for sale for the 'fun of it.' There was a desire to move somewhere in there...

Foreclosures are getting scary. Last weekend we saw two where me and my wife want to buy. :) However, one was 'distressed' and the other was too isolated. I'm going to wait for the market to 'season' for longer. I've always heard real estate is like apples. You have to wait until a fruit you like is ripe enough before you commit to picking one. I see a tree that needs a few more years with good water and fertilizer before its worth picking...

Got Popcorn?
Neil

smf said...

Just for kicks.

A work buddy sold his house in 2006 for $320K, $9000 back to the buyer for furniture. 100% financing.

The same house is now for sale at $199K.

Oops!