Its almost the end of the year!
The NAR is estimating 5.67 million homes to be sold in 2007. What is your prediction for 2008?
Calculated risk had a convincing article that based on historical data, 3.0 Million homes would be a VERY deep recession.
WaMu in their little confession noted that they expect 40% fewer mortgages to be issued in 2008. 60% * 5.67 is 3.4 Million. Hmmmm.... But I'm an optimist... Not to mention it takes a while to really slide into a bad recession. So I'll bracket 3.5 Million to 4.0 Million home sales in 2008. Just for the fun of it, I'll predict two years out: 3.0 to 3.5 Million in 2009.
What's your prediction on price declines in 2008? Where I want to buy has dropped about 5%... Those that predicted where we are predicted a 5% to 10% decline in 2007 and a 8% to 20% decline in 2008. Since I think we're only avoiding the pain on a short term basis... I see a 15% to 20% drop in 2008. For 2009 I predict a 20% to 30% drop in home prices.
I'll add graphs and stuff to this article later. Consider it a 'stub' for now.
Got popcorn?
Neil
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1 comment:
Wow Neil, looking at those numbers makes me cringe. No doubt, if they come to fruition we'll be in a lot of trouble.
But I agree with you. I might lean towards the upper end of your sales ranges, but that's just a gut feeling, no facts behind it.
As for my area, it's a suburb of Phoenix that's always been considered "desirable". Lots of shopping, higher-end houses, etc. etc. (fill in your favorite Realtor-speak here). Homes sold for maybe $200k in 2000, and $425k at the peak. Well, according to zillow we've been down a consistent 20% for a few months now - and we know that zillow is optimistic. When I show that to people it really grabs their attention. "Ahwatukee is down 20%? What??!?"
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