The above is a photo on cnn finance. So how much of this will Joe and Jane sixpack need to see before they realize that the real estate market is unhealthy and going to be in deflation for a bit? Peronally, I think we're still on the previous "emotional timeline."
My latest comment on it:
http://recomments.blogspot.com/2007/01/pattern-is-locked.html
The original timeline by yours truly:
http://recomments.blogspot.com/2006/10/market-cycles-time-to-buy-2008-or-2009.html
We're approaching fear. Not there yet... (denial is a persistant emotion), but soon. July or August remains my prediction for desperation.
A review of investment emotions.
1. Optimism
2. Excitement
3. Thrill
4. Euphoria (market price peak) Peaked in late 2005/early 2006
5. Anxiety (I'm a long term investor, not a speculator.)
6. Denial Reached in October of 2006
7. Fear
8. Desperation Predicted for July/August 2007
9. Panic
10 Capitulation Could it be summer 2008?
11 Despondency (start of market price bottom)
12 Depression (end of market price bottom) Not before summer 2009 or Later???
13 Hope (hey, this investment has picked up off its bottom)
14 Relief (Its almost what I paid for it...)
15 Optimism (cycle starts again)
Here are the mainstream articles I found very interesting and bearish today:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/15/real_estate/home_prices/index.htm?postversion=2007021518
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070215/housing_slump.html?.v=11
What's this, posted before the weekend? Will they persist (stay on the front pages)? That I don't know.
Time to do some more apartment hunting (before signing, new discounts were found, so we're checking out new complexes). Now... three new complexes in Santa Clarita with all the amenities... Does anyone else think these were built for sale and then dumped into the rental market? Its amazing how many spare units there are!
Got popcorn?
Neil
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