Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Optimism for future?

There are many indixes still cliff diving.

But one I've been posting on a while is showing some recovery,
the baltic dry index:

Now, I'll be excited when this breaks 2,500 from its current 1,895. At that point mothballed ships will be pulled out of port and put back to use. It implies the rate of ship mothballing should be slowing.

Part of the reason I'm posting this is the bearish blogs have been invaded by people who seem to want a depression. There is a huge difference between warning about one and wanting one. The whole point is to try and keep it to a 'deep recession' at worst. Some people want to see their 'political enemies' punished for no other reason than they think its their right. Ugh... that is very short sighted at best.

I've had people get very angry at me for not being pro-tax on taxes that would kill employment. Instead of debating economics, they make fun of voodoo economics. Fine. But I know of enough people who will lay off if their taxes are increased too much. This is the boiling frog syndrome. If you change things too fast, the frog will jump away.

There are taxes that I would like to see raised. I'm convinced the cash flow out of the USA to pay for oil is killing us economically. Recall that is far more money than we send to China and India! So raise the gasoline tax governator. Heck, I'm pro raising the car registration tax.

Build infrastructure to enhance the economy short and long term. How I wish the unions would allow pre-fabricated elevated buildings, road, or rail to be put in. For long term a city needs transportation to prosper. While we're at it, upgrade LAX, SFO, OAK, and build San Diego a proper airport (multi-runway with one runway long enough for long haul).

Mostly I'd like to see carpool/bus lanes built and bus terminal built analogous to the ones I've used in Europe and New York. I'm pro-rail, but the current system is so corrupt that rail is an economic nightmare. sigh... Why could they do it 100 years ago but not today?!?

Otherwise this will get worse. I've been investigating the 'Autobahn' method of stimulus. In that not only do you build infrastructure, but you force companies to assign workers to the project so that those companies are then forced to go out and hire new workers. Oh, mostly you take the unemployed. You then also work those workers under... harsh conditions that makes everyone glad they have a city job. The US' 'New deal' wasn't that bad. But I'm wondering if the US needs this sort of program to reteach a work ethic and to 'shut up and appreciate' what you have. I've read translations of letters written by lawyers forced to work the autobahn. Why do I bring this up? I do not want to go down the path Germany did... (Certainly not in certain extreme situations). But if you wish a depression... Don't expect those in control at the start to necessarily chose the path out.

So let's celibrate good news. We'll need it over the next 18 months. I'm done with schadenfreude. Oh, I want the worst criminals put in jail. But if you want to go after a large group, they will band together in an unpredictable way. Set up better laws and regulation.

And read Adam Smith. The latest people to invade the blogs are good at mocking. Yea for them, but so were the Realtors (tm) in 2005-2007. But its also obvious the new commentors haven't read the background text books. Not even Marx. They just want a change in society... that won't happen. Oh, society is going to change. But I've yet to see it go a way where Adam Smith doesn't get the last laugh after a few decades.

Got Popcorn?


Rob Dawg said...

Mild disagree Neil.

The BDI can dislocate for months. What you see as trend reversal I suggest could merely be backfill for a steep decline that got excessive.

bearmaster said...

Hi Neil,

How are you doing blogger buddy? Happy belated New Years. Hope all is well with Nancy and the baby.

I totally agree with your comment about trying to anticipate what will happen (i.e., facing reality) and WANTING something to happen. I have no patience with fools that confuse the two.

Just wanted to let you know I am more or less back blogging the South Bay. It won't be at the pace I blogged before but I'll at least try to put up something often enough to inform people of something!

wannabuy said...

Bearmaster! Welcome back! The wife and I were worried about you. We're all doing great. The little one is a joy... that brings home *every* day care cold. ;)

Rob Dawg,

You could be very right. I hope not. But if it is only backfill... then slow, but continued ship mothballing will close the gap.

Got Popcorn?

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