Hat tip to Ben Jones' excellent HBB blog.
http://www.dailybreeze.com/ci_11797406
I find it very interesting that less than 30 homes sold on the PV Peninsula last month. There are 313 on the market as of last night. I haven't been tracking the inventory much this year (I'll get better), but have 277 homes for sale in the four cities that make up the PV on 1/5/2009, 297 on 2/1/2009, and 309 on 2/23/2009.
The LA times lists the January sales as 9 single family and 3 condos (from DQnews).
277/12=23.08 months of inventory. Now, I expect some spring improvement, but its very unlikely we'll drop below a year of inventory in 2009.
I think we're approaching a local capitualation as Realtors (like the one in the daily breeze article) are now conceeding 2009 is a lost cause. They're swamped with desperate sellers and very few buyers.
I think its the perfect time for the Screen Actors to rattle their saber. Will they strike? I double dog dare them. ;) (The blowhards are powerless.) edit: I have friends who work the film industry. I do not take joy in what's happening, but the SAG had over a year to be sensible and instead they were stupid. This once powerful union went from feared to sidelined in less than four years. If they strike, many middle class individuals will be hit hard. The 'big name' actors are effectively corporations that will be fine. Just the threat of a strike forced industry wide cutbacks for the entire 1Q 2009. Let's see how SAG handles commercials. This will make or break the union. There was a lot more money flowing around when negotiations first started. Now they're going to be fighting over the scraps instead of the ribeye steak.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
edit: One of my coworkers bought on the PV peninsula in February. He knows of other February 'sales' that went pending amoung his friends. So I expect sales in February to be much better than January. But not enough to drop the inventory enough to matter. There are too many homes overpriced by $1M+ over what the market will bear today. But I bet the Realtors will spin this. March sales will show us how truly broken the market is.
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5 comments:
Your "immune" South Bay median prices are -20% YOY with no end in sight, record low sales, 2 years of inventory, etc. etc.
My "immune" Arlington has Jan median prices -2.7% YOY, sales up 27% YOY, 7.4 months of inventory, (trending downward) and total inventory looks to soon be down YOYOYOY.
I wish I could be happier for you but obviously I am not. You are gonna get your wish, but I am not. You are gonna see 2003 prices or before. I pray to someday see 2004 prices, well above the 2002 prices I was told were coming to Arlington very very soon.
Really, I guess I am a bit jealous. I remember being days away from pulling the trigger in 2003, when some asshole told me, dont buy its a bubble, prices will come down bigtime!!! He turned me on to the bubble blogs and I became a true believer.
Of course, the "bloodbath in Arlington" bubble crowd is all long gone now. I shouldnt take it out on you because you had the decency to change your arlington bloodbath prediction when the facts warranted.
The rest though, they just slunk away, never admitting how wrong they were, likely influencing newbies like myself. Some of them were very truly priced out forever.
Again, nothing against you personally, but you can imagine how frustrating it is when I see how your patience is being rewarded while I look to have made the biggest financial mistake of my life.
A whole THREE Santa Monica house sales closed in February. And look at the jump in inventory over 2008, especially Pacific Palisades. The upper Westside is finally tipping.
I wish I could be happier for you but obviously I am not. You are gonna get your wish, but I am not.
The anon:
You wish is just time delayed.
High end real estate requires capital to purchase.
1. Mortgage rules are tightening up.
2. What asset are people going to sell to buy Arlington homes? Normally high end real estate has a component of the price tied to the stock market (sometimes inverse as people flee stocks to the 'safety' of real estate).
The best time to buy is when its tough to get a mortgage. You have no where near the downside potential of high end LA, but there is downside ahead.
Westside bubble:
Ok, 24 months of Inventory in Santa Monica vs. 23 in PV. You *just* have us beat. ;)
8 pending for March?!? With the declining ratio of pendings going to closures... its going to be a dry commision season.
I like your article showing the LA high tier is effectively following the Composite. :)
Ghad, this is ugly.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
"Neil said...
One of my coworkers bought on the PV peninsula in February. He knows of other February 'sales' that went pending amoung his friends. So I expect sales in February to be much better than January."
Maybe not - out here we have a very large backlog of pendings that arent closing. Word out here is part of it is the lenders are so swamped with refis, the funding of new purchases takes a backseat.
Translation, many of them will probably close eventually, but it may not be in February.
The Anonymous said:
Word out here is part of it is the lenders are so swamped with refis, the funding of new purchases takes a backseat.
Translation, many of them will probably close eventually, but it may not be in February.
That would be an interesting 'unintended consequence' of the current push to keep people in their homes.
Closings pay quite a few salaries/commisions. Note: The coworker has closed on the PV home. I'm not sure if in February or early March. Somehow he beat the credit union using a mortgage broker (Freddie loan).
Got Popcorn?
Neil
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