I really like the Irvine housing blog.
Irvinerenter has a different opinion on where we are on real estate emotions.
I think we'll see Panic in Fall, late fall. Irvine renter thinks we're in a year of denial and that we won't see panic this year but rather fear this fall and winter.
The Irvine housing blog post
Either perception says wait. There won't be a quick recovery. With higher down payment requirements, righter credit (no longer just 'fogging a mirror'), and the recession... We won't see peak prices again for a long time. I'm now thinking, even with inflation, that my 2017 estimate is too optimistic. When do you think we'll see peak prices again?
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Neil
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6 comments:
You're coming along nicely! ;-)
lol!
Its going to be interesting to see how things develop this fall. I think we're finally ready to see panic. Others think we're in slow pain for a while longer and panic a year later than my prediction. Its time to calibrate the models. ;)
I've been re-reading the 1925-1931 history of the Florida real estate mania. Its helping me calibrate a bit. The stories of the stucco developments being re-taken by the jungle were amusing.
I'm thinking this national bubble is paralleling well enough. Well enough that it looks like this year is 1926: a weak sales year with small declines in prices until September when all hell broke loose. 1927/1928 were needed to get the market back to sanity. The bottom wasn't until 1931. Yikes!
Got Popcorn?
Neil
When do you think we'll see peak prices again?
Inflation-adjusted? Never.
If I may make a request, feel free to post some of this prior bubble information that you've found. That would be extremely interesting. Thanks.
Sandman,
Sure. Let me collect it and create an article.
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Neil
Neil,
I was serious when I said at the beginning of the year that I wasn't even going to poke my head out until this fall because the first three quarters were going to be data nonsense. There's a part of Sacramento with 4 months and declining inventory. Like I said data nonsense. The best we can hope for starting this fall is many quarters of grinding declines. We could also be facing a third massive stairstep down. No way to tell. Or as the Maagic 8 Ball says; "Ask again later."
Rob Dawg,
I 100% agree that its just not that interesting until the fall. Personally, I'm amazed how many knife catchers are out there. In many cases I'm witnessing people buy a 2nd home when they really cannot afford the first. I'm thinking walk aways are really about to take off...
Got Popcorn?
Neil
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