Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Alternate view on state of real estate emotions

I really like the Irvine housing blog.
Irvinerenter has a different opinion on where we are on real estate emotions.

I think we'll see Panic in Fall, late fall. Irvine renter thinks we're in a year of denial and that we won't see panic this year but rather fear this fall and winter.

The Irvine housing blog post

Either perception says wait. There won't be a quick recovery. With higher down payment requirements, righter credit (no longer just 'fogging a mirror'), and the recession... We won't see peak prices again for a long time. I'm now thinking, even with inflation, that my 2017 estimate is too optimistic. When do you think we'll see peak prices again?

Got Popcorn?
Neil

6 comments:

tj & the bear said...

You're coming along nicely! ;-)

wannabuy said...

lol!

Its going to be interesting to see how things develop this fall. I think we're finally ready to see panic. Others think we're in slow pain for a while longer and panic a year later than my prediction. Its time to calibrate the models. ;)


I've been re-reading the 1925-1931 history of the Florida real estate mania. Its helping me calibrate a bit. The stories of the stucco developments being re-taken by the jungle were amusing.

I'm thinking this national bubble is paralleling well enough. Well enough that it looks like this year is 1926: a weak sales year with small declines in prices until September when all hell broke loose. 1927/1928 were needed to get the market back to sanity. The bottom wasn't until 1931. Yikes!

Got Popcorn?
Neil

sandman said...

When do you think we'll see peak prices again?

Inflation-adjusted? Never.

If I may make a request, feel free to post some of this prior bubble information that you've found. That would be extremely interesting. Thanks.

wannabuy said...

Sandman,

Sure. Let me collect it and create an article.

Got Popcorn?
Neil

Rob Dawg said...

Neil,
I was serious when I said at the beginning of the year that I wasn't even going to poke my head out until this fall because the first three quarters were going to be data nonsense. There's a part of Sacramento with 4 months and declining inventory. Like I said data nonsense. The best we can hope for starting this fall is many quarters of grinding declines. We could also be facing a third massive stairstep down. No way to tell. Or as the Maagic 8 Ball says; "Ask again later."

wannabuy said...

Rob Dawg,

I 100% agree that its just not that interesting until the fall. Personally, I'm amazed how many knife catchers are out there. In many cases I'm witnessing people buy a 2nd home when they really cannot afford the first. I'm thinking walk aways are really about to take off...

Got Popcorn?
Neil