Nationally, we're at a two year peak and there is plenty of time until we reach the 2008 peak in inventory. Its getting interesting. Since a picture says more than a thousand words:
What about Phoenix? The big daddy of them all continues to have monster inventory. But look at what is happening with all the foreclosures. Inventory is flat to slightly down! Due to the scale of inventory in Phoenix, this implies a crash is either in progress or months away from starting. I think the multi-year inventory has finally crested and a tidal wave of price reductions is in progress.
What about DC and Houston? The Chart says DC is getting weaker and Houston will stay fairly flat.
Now some claim the inner areas of DC are different. Yea right... look at the chart. Compare 2008 inventory and sales to every other year. Notice a trend (note, future months have zero sales... ignore that bit, its a placeholder).
And precious Alexandria? bwaa haaa ha!
Normally I cover a few more regions, but I'm waiting for their sales reports. So expect an update in a few weeks. Until then, realize "Its different here." Yep, credit continues to tighten. Those wise souls with a down-payment are going to be sitting pretty. But wait. Investment emotions and inventory are both indicating the major prices declines will be through 2009. Obviously, those areas that have already lost 40% or so of their "value" won't have a worse year in 2009. But no where has hit bottom. Too much of the nation has over a year of inventory!
And as a wise blogger noted, "When everyone wants to get out, no one wants to get in." We're not at that point yet. When we reach that point. LOW BALL!!! Housing is a business deal, not an entitlement.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
22 comments:
Can you do a chart like this for Austin TX sometime? It will be different of course, because it IS different here. We're so hip, prices could never go down here.
Thanks.
Hip,
I haven't been tracking data for Austin. Its not one of the locations my company might relocate jobs too. :( I like the city... But I had to draw the line somewhere.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Neil,
Awesome data, as usual.
That's interesting commentary on Phoenix, I'd love to hear you elaborate. This isn't just because it's my hometown, but because we seem to be the canary in the coal mine (discounting Florida, for obvious reasons).
I imagine that inventory peaks around the time prices have their steepest declines, but it'd be nice to have some data to support it.
"Notice a trend"
Yes I do notice a trend Neil. I notice that unlike all of DC which looks to set inventory records in 2008, Arlington is not spiking and about to pass BELOW the 2006 inventory line, and possibly the 2007 line as well! Oh and Alexandria inventory is already BELOW 2006 - of course you wont graph that now will you!
Back to Arlington, what about sales relative to listings? Had you graphed this, your readers would know that Arlington currently has a relatively HEALTHY 5.51 months of inventory! Sure this is higher than in the past, but lets compare that to the other areas outside of DC that have meltdown prices and 10, 20 or even 30 months of inventory! When compared to these areas, seems to me that Arlington is (whats the word I am looking for...ah yes DIFFERENT)!!!
For those of you like minded persons that seem to dominate Neil's blog, you should know that he is obsessed with Arlington & Alexandria and engaged in a crusade to show bloggers on other sites that Arlington and Alexandria are JUST LIKE the other areas around DC that have melted down. Problem is, none of his fellow Bears agree with him on this - they think it will happen in the future, but they all note IT HAS NOT HAPPENED YET! Neil cant accept this so he continues to post only parts of the picture in an effort to convince you he is right.
NEIL - why cant you get this through your thick skull - while Arlington, Alexandria, & DC are LIKELY to fall, the data available show thus far the fall has ONLY been 0-5%. If and when these areas fall 20-25% just like the outer county areas have, you can claim you were right. Until then recognize that as of this moment it is fair to say that ITS DIFFERENT HERE!!!!!
Anon,
With credit tightening, its not different anywhere. Look at the sales rate. Those areas are falling. Jes Jain posted that the inner DC area has dropped 10% YOY in price per square foot. The price per square foot is not down 5%; to claim that is just false. ALL OF THE DATA I HAVE ACCESS TO POINTS TO ALL OF DC FALLING APART!.
Jes Jain posted on the HBB how Alexandria is down 10% YOY. anecdotal data is too easy to twist. POST GRAPHS! Start your own blog.
5+ months of inventory sets up declining prices. Look at the graph... That is a DECADE OF DATA!. There is no denying that the inner DC market is falling apart.
Sandman,
Bearmaster has her series on the LA crash of the 1990's. (Sorry, I misplaced the link on this computer.) Basically, the greatest price declines end up occurring as sellers capitulate, inventory is going down (but still far above normal), and buyers have the mind set to haggle for a bargain.
We're in a credit crunch. That's national. Not to mention, moves happen from 'nice areas' during the school break. I read somewhere that 60% of 2007 buyers wouldn't qualify today. Every month we hear about new mortgage guidelines; but those take 90 days to go into effect...
I wonder if the housing bulls know we're been making fun of 'its different here' for two years?
Instead of trying to understand the best data, they try to make fun of it. Cest la vie. They can make fun of me all they want. Last I looked, about 2,500 people per month read my graphs. These graphs are of publicly available data.
We're in a recession. I still believe its a two year recession.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Is this something you can teach me how to do? Assuming it's not terribly complicated, time-consuming, requiring proprietary software or databases... I would just be doing it for entertainment.
Otherwise I'll just hope that your company decides to consider opening a branch here, so you'll start graphing Austin.
And if they do locate here, you and all your colleagues can buy million dollar condos downtown. Trendy downtown living - great views! entertainment and shopping! walk to the hike and bike trail!
"Is this something you can teach me how to do?"
Make an inventory graph for Austin, I mean.
We're in a recession. I still believe its a two year recession.
Oh yeah, definitely.
I've heard a lot of public officials / media members preparing the masses for a "long, but shallow" recession. I think this is the beginning of capitulation (as far as the recession goes), and it will end with "oh wow, this will be long AND deep".
By the way, the day I hear that is the day that I start seriously gearing up towards a RE purchase - say, 6 months later (data driven, of course).
Thanks for the name, I'm sure google will find the site.
Neil - you really can seem borderline retarded at times. You want graphs & data - fine. Go suck on these for a while http://www.virginiamls.com/
http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/
Obviously it makes no difference what that data says - clearly you are right. As we all know, it makes NO difference whether a market has 8 months or 30+ months of inventory. No matter what as soon as you hit that 6 month mark (or 5 months if you prefer) the market responds in an unrelenting death spiral. Prices go down in a monolithic bloc and it doesnt matter where a property located since IT IS ALL THE SAME.
In fact why does the MRIS even break up jurisdictions? Since it is all the same everywhere, im sure the FACT that for March 08 YOY median prices were +3.21 in Arlington and -29.73 in PWC is some sort of rounding error. Or maybe you prefer whole year numbers? Again, the FACT that for all of 2007 median prices were +2.47 in Alexandria while -12.21 in Culpepper is within the margin of error. Right Neil?
Hey Neil - see the latest post from your boy David at the Bubble Meter Blog - ya know, the big time bear. He said.
"Locally, in the DC area, foreclosures are widespread in many of the middle to outer suburbs. These places include, but are not limited to, Manassas, Woodbridge, Waldorf, Sterling, Laurel. These foreclosures are contributing to the downward trend in prices for housing units in these areas. In Washington, DC proper and many inner suburbs foreclosures have been rare."
But wait...no...how could this be??? As we all know, its ALL THE SAME EVERYWHERE. Well he didnt graph it, so its irrelevant - right?
More comments from David in the last 3 months:
“Although prices are falling slowly in the desirable neighborhoods within the Beltway. Far out suburbs and condos are experiencing larger price declines.”
AND
"far outer suburbs have experienced much larger prices declines then inner part of the region"
AND
"DC is at a 9.5 months of supply (now 8.7 by the way). But, at least DC is not Prince William County (outer suburb of DC) where the months supply is at 17.1. Expect large price declines in Prince William County this year and other outer suburbs of Washington, DC"
WHAT??? NO!!! BLASPHEMY!!! David's posts all say that the inner areas are DIFFERENT than the outer areas. Neil - how can you allow post after post from another bear go unchallenged? YOU MUST STOP HIM - SHOW HIM WHY THIS IS WRONG - ALL AREAS ARE THE SAME - INNER AREAS ARE NOT DOING BETTER!!!
My problem with retards like you is you keep desprately trying to show why the core of DC is not doing better than the rest of DC, yet all the data and all the rest of the bloggers bulls and bears alike do not agree with you. SERIOUSLY DUDE WHAT IS YOUR PROBLEM!!!
Personally I think if you have such an issue with his blogs and then do not visit the site...you can just go read Davids blog.
And if you are not in underwater with your home then why do you care. I mean at the end of the day each buyer makes their own choice of when and where to buy. Really you should consider to start your "OWN" blog if this one pisses you off so much. You sound so desperate! are you losing your home and can't sell?
Sounds like your the one with the problem.
"Sounds like your the one with the problem."
Correctamundo - I got a BIG problem with Neil and his campaign of misinformation. Notice how he goes on and on about the inner areas of DC. He doesnt do that with Phoenix, or Vegas or anywyere else other than LA. My problem is is he he's out in LA doesnt know JACK about the DC area!
If he were to leave well enough alone and just say DC is going down then fine. He wont do that though - he HAS to show why the core of DC is going down at the same rate as the rest of DC - problem is IT ISNT!
Sorry but my own blog wont counteract his obsession - people here might believe his inner DC area garbage and that bothers me (like I said I have a problem).
Incidentally I rent.
I should mention too that I have been waiting for years to buy. In late 03, I was ready to go but I just knew there was a bubble in all of DC - so I waited. Mid 2005 all of DC stops increasing and im thinking sweet - im going to get a deal on a plum spot in Arlington.
Sure enough, in late 2005 the outer areas start falling apart and doing so quickly. To my amazement however, Arlington and other inner areas where I wanted to buy held up. All the outer areas went down in lockstep - the inner areas didnt - they just held.
Fast forward 2.5 years later im still waiting for the inner areas to plummet. Everyone keeps saying, just wait the inner areas will collapse, be patient. Finally it looks like there is some decline in Arlington - but it is painfully slow - and the chances it gets back to early 03 prices are getting more and more remote as time goes by. In the mean time, outer areas are already collapsed into early 2004 territory with no end in sight.
The inner areas may still fall to early 03 prices, I havent given up all hope yet. The problem is I see jackasses posting crap like this which not only flies in the face of my personal experience, it contradicts the data that bulls and bears who LIVE IN DC follow.
Neil keeps saying that the inner area has fallen and suggests there is no real difference between inner and outer areas - how freaking arrogant is that! Basically he is saying that not only is my personal experience wrong, the data I have looked at that shows they have NOT YET fallen nearly as bad as the outer areas is wrong too.
Ive been lurking for a long time on this and other sites, but I just cant stand this any more. Neil, I really dont know why you have such a vendetta against a tiny area thousands of miles away from you. You keep posting and posting on why the inner areas HAVE fallen just as much as the outer areas have. Well im here to tell you that they have in fact fallen - slightly. Over time, you may be proven right (I hope so). However any suggestion that they are nearly as bad off TODAY as the outer areas is just simply WRONG WRONG WRONG. Got it?
hip in zilker said...
"Is this something you can teach me how to do?"
Make an inventory graph for Austin, I mean.
All I do is log onto ziprealty and record areas of interest. After I accumulate enough data... I plot it in excel! Some cites provide historical data and have given me permission to use their data.
Sandman,
Its a great link! If you don't find it, please let me know.
The Anonymous. I go by links sent to me by friends and information from employees I work with from across the nation. What I post is factual. If you have evidence otherwise, BLOG IT! I agree the nicer areas will do better than some of the ex-urbs, but with the data available, we're seeing declines. However, when I look at those nicer areas, I see that the amount of home for the same money has gone up. Case-Shiller if you will. Others have posted on how the region you defend so much is dropping on a dollars per square foot basis. Since that data is noisy, I'd love to see your multi-year graph of such information.
Is this the comment you have so much trouble with? Compare 2008 inventory and sales to every other year.
How is that anything like what you're claiming? I put more words into the Phoenix graph!
Since you mention David's blog, there is a reason he moderated comments (hint, look in the mirror). I don't think you've been lurking a long time; I think you've been one of the rude one's on David's blog. All you need to do is blog a few graphs to shut me up. Where are the graphs?
Or are you in the real estate business? The REIC? Quite bluntly, as already noted, your comments sound desperate. My DC readership is too tiny to matter. If anything, your comments will just bring more google links to my blog. ;)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
If want to invest in indian real estate market it is best time as it the boom in indian real estate market especially in gurgaon real estate.
Neil - I dont do graphs because I am functionally computer illiterate - I just figured out how to start posting comments. And no I dont work in real estate. I am a semi retired litigator if you must know.
You on the other hand clearly know how to work a blog. You already take the same MLS data that I look at but you post only part of the picture. As far as making you shut up - why dont you post a side by side graph of Arlington vs PWC - it would take you all of what 10 minutes? My guess is you wont as it would show a big DIFFERENCE between areas in DC and clearly you wouldn’t like that.
"Compare 2008 inventory and sales to every other year."
In a nutshell this is my beef with you. You post a graph of DC area inventory - I see a huge YOY increase every step of the way - its beginning to look like Phoenix with a layer cake of constantly increasing YOY inventory 06, 07, 08. I think wow DC area looks bad and it is - especially compared to Houston which you show on the same graph and is largely flat.
Next you show a graph of Arlington inventory. If you wanted to show Arlington is just as bad as DC, I would expect to see this same layer cake phenomenon - but I dont. The first thing I notice is 2006 inventory was MUCH higher than 2007 - why that sure is DIFFERENT - no where else (other than Alexandria) did that did they? Then I look at sales - basically unchanged between 06 and 07. I cross check with MRIS - sure enough there were more sales in 07 than 06 (3090 vs 3082). All of DC didnt do this - in fact I guess you could say this too is DIFFERENT.
Next thing I notice is that the Arlngton 2008 inventory line is certainly the highest yet. However, it didnt take the big ramp up in March like it did in 06. In fact since March it looks like it is closing the gap on 06. I check virginia MLS sure enough on March 1 inventory was up 29% 08 vs 06, but up only 3% today (April 17) 08 vs 06. Will it pass under 06? I dont know. Either way however I dont see the layer cake phenomenon in Arlington I see with the DC area. In a word it looks DIFFERENT.
Lastly I look at Arlinton sales - they are down - no doubt about it. But wait a minute DC has about 1 year of inventory - WOW THATS bad. Lets check what these bad sales have done to Arlington - hmmm 5.5 months of inventory. WHAT - THIS IS YOUR EVIDENCE THAT ARLINGTON IS GETTING ROCKED JUST AS HARD AS ALL OF DC? I DONT KNOW NEIL - TO ME THIS JUST LOOKS - WHATS THE WORD - AH YES DIFFERENT.
"I agree the nicer areas will do better than some of the ex-urbs, but with the data available, we're seeing declines."
We agree on this - in fact no one except that retard Lance would disagree with this. My problem is your spin in these posts never reflects that its "doing better" as you say. I look at that data and say it is DIFFERENT, NOT because it is not going down, but DIFFERENT because it is going down SO MUCH SLOWER AND MILDER than the rest of the area. David looks at it and comes up with the same conclusion that I do. You on the other hand look at data but NEVER point this DIFFERENCE out on your blog. Instead, you go on and on about how ITS NOT DIFFERENT, THE CORE IS GOING DOWN, BWAHAHAHA. AGAIN WHY CANT YOU ADMIT ON YOUR BLOG (NOT THESE COMMENTS BUT THE BLOG) THAT THE CORE IS DOING BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA?
The reason you cant I think is because despite your comments above your agenda is clear. God knows why, but for some reason it enrages you that the core is NOT suffering the way the rest of the area is. So much of your energy is devoted to why the core is JUST as bad as the rest. I really really dont get it - what happened to you to make you this way?
Now if you were to do a series of postings on WHY the core is NOT YET suffering, but WILL EVENTUALLY fall in line with the rest of the area, that would be a worthwhile posting and frankly quite interesting. I suspect you wont do this though... Why, first because despite your comment "I agree the nicer areas will do better than some of the ex-urbs" your incessant postings on Arlington, all with the slant it is not doing better than the rest of the area suggest you really dont believe this. Second, my guess is you think doing this would somehow be admitting a mistake which you seem to believe is a sign of weakness that cannot be shown. More than anything it is a sign of insecurity and insincerity.
As for my desparation - in addition to my desire to quit renting (see above), truth be told I am here pestering you because your posts are so biased and that bugs me. You see the same data as the rest of us, but you come up with a completely different conclusion. In fact, the only other person who is like you is Lance (albeit on the other side of the spectrum). Both of you are severe, biased partisans who will never truly "concede" something. Rest assured I dont like lance either - but he doesnt have a blog (if he does tell me as I would love to rip into him too).
If you were to come clean with your agenda on inner DC and consistently admit that supply & demand data for inner DC is DIFFERENT than it is for the rest of DC I would leave you alone. If and when the data for inner and outer DC does line up, I will be sure to point this out, and then you are free to go on and on as to why its all the same. Until then, I think I will stick around - that is unless you figure out a way to block my posts (as I suspect you seriously dont like dissention - and I have no idea what you can or cannot do via these blogs). In sum, just keep up these slanted posts of the inner DC picture and enjoy your new reality of me being there to point out the deep seeded biases in your work. Have a nice day!!!!
"ALL OF THE DATA I HAVE ACCESS TO POINTS TO ALL OF DC FALLING APART!"
Here why dont you graph this. I'm a big believer of supply and demand dictating prices so this is a comparison of "months of inventory" (per MRIS) I did a while back for both Arlington and PWC. For full disclosure I never checked this and I think I got lazy on my second decimal rounding (i.e. I may have left 3.467 as 3.46) but its pretty damn close. Also, enjoy my running commentary and feel free to show me where exactly Arlington "fell apart" just like PWC
MONTHS OF INVENTORY PER MRIS
2005 ARL PWC
Jan 0.78 0.87
Feb 1.06 1.16
Mar 1.05 0.88
Apr 1.30 1.22
May 1.00 1.26
Jun 0.98 1.30
Jul 1.66 1.83
Aug 1.23 2.05
Sep 2.51 3.21
Oct 3.30 3.59
Nov 3.40 4.16
Dec 2.99 3.21
Ahh the sizzling year of 05! Both markets were EQUALLY overheated back then. The first hint of a problem for those of us here was mid 2005. Sure enough both markets posted much more inventory in Aug-Sep than before. Maybe PWC was a little worse of than ARL toward the end of the year, but for the most part they were pretty much the SAME!
2006 ARL PWC
Jan 3.73 5.99
Feb 4.30 6.20
Mar 3.77 5.55
Apr 5.19 7.36
May 5.06 7.66
Jun 4.67 7.59
Jul 4.84 9.96
Aug 4.15 9.85
Sep 5.65 10.62
Oct 6.07 10.90
Nov 4.56 10.31
Dec 3.17 7.98
MY - WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES! Arl got a little worse YOY, but more or less held its own only a single month above 6 months and then right back down again! By contrast PWC started the year in trouble and it only got worse as time went on. It quickly blew through the "even" market stage of 5-6 months and quickly went into panic mode double digit inventory. At this point, I remember thinking, "well Arl must just be a little better they will surely melt down next year". No matter what however, every impartial observer (except you perhaps) would look at these 2 markets and say they were clearly DIFFERENT!
2007 ARL PWC
Jan 4.19 9.90
Feb 3.53 10.95
Mar 3.26 10.91
Apr 3.72 12.10
May 3.31 12.68
Jun 3.51 12.79
Jul 3.33 13.81
Aug 4.21 14.13
Sep 5.84 18.79
Oct 6.07 17.88
Nov 6.61 16.72
Dec 4.46 15.54
HOLY CRAP - ARE YOU KIDDING ME. Neil - I want you to look closely at these numbers, this is not a misprint. Most obvious PWC isnt in the same UNIVERSE as ARL. Remember, a mere 18 months ago they were within a razors edge of each other - LOOK AT THEM NOW!!!
Also, look carefully at Arl 2006 versus Arl 2007 - notice something? Thats right for MOST of 2007 YOY inventory was DOWN!!!!! By the way, this isnt an aberation - you know who else spent most of 2007 at 4-5 months of inventory and was down YOY - ALEXANDRIA AND DC!!!!
It was at this point when I really lost it - I want to buy in ARL and thought surely the meltdown will arrive in 2007. It DIDNT. To me - again an impartial observer this was shocking how can one market melt down while another 20-25 miles away looks like nothing is wrong? If you can explain why, I would love to hear it. No matter what however, no impartial observer can look at this market and say that ARL is even remotely as bad as PWC - except of course for YOU that is!
2008 ARL PWC
Jan 9.14 17.21
Feb 6.87 16.12
Mar 5.51 11.61
Jan came around and I thought FINALLY, the downturn is here! My rejoycing was short lived as ARL quickly returned to sub 6 months inventory. Now march is generally a good month for all markets around here so maybe ARL will creep back up. I still hold out home that finally maybe the ARL market will turn down this year but in all likelyhood its downturn will be NOTHING compared to PWC. AND FOR YOU TO SAY THERE IS NO REAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE MARKETS OR THAT ARL HAS (TO DATE) SUFFERED ANYTHING LIKE PWC IS BS - PURE AND SIMPLE.
Incidentally, these two counties arent the only ones like this. Alexandria and DC months of inventory are slightly worse, but generally have moved in lockstep with Arl. Fairfax inventory (the border between inner and outer areas is (no surprise) in between. Oh and want to know somethig else, PWC is not the worst - there are places like Clarke & Culpepper that generally move in conjunction with PWC except they are WORSE!
Well thats enough of a beat down for today. If you are honest with yourself you will now ADMIT that thus far there is a DIFFERENCE between the two - but I dont hold out much hope. And again, dont lecture me that Arlington is not going down - it is - but its downturn is NOTHING compared to PWC and its exurban counterparts. But for you not to see these OBVIOUS and GLARING differences MAKES YOU NO BETTER THAN LANCE. Chew on that for a minute!
Anon:
Median prices Alexandria for March:
2008 $395,000
2007 $456,000
2006 (peak) $477,000
We know Case-Shiller is better than median. Homes were improved in the last few years dramatically. Why is the median price dropping so fast?
Got Popcorn?
Neil
oops, copy and pasted the wrong city's cells
Alexandria:
$415,000 2008
$479,500 2007
$445,000 2006
Not as big a drop, by why the drop?
Why that big of a change after such a fast runnup?
Median was under $200k until 2002 for sales in March.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Neil - your going back to the huge area covered by Case Shiller to explain tiny Alexandria? Do you remember the severe beat down KH gave you awhile back where you said "resales were in the mostly in the core"? Remember where he showed why you were wrong and instead of admitting it you ran away? Do you really want to go down that road again?
Now back to your Alexandria numbers:
$415,000 2008
$479,500 2007
$445,000 2006
So from 2006 to 2008 we have a total drop of -6.7% I would say this is JUST ABOUT RIGHT. I have no idea why it rose in 07 - except that it coincides with the 06 to 07drop in YOY inventory I showed you above. Recall where I said Alexandria was FALLING but FALLING SLOWLY? Probably not, but THANK YOU FOR PROVING MY POINT!!!
Just for sh*ts and gigles, why dont we see what PWC did during the same timeperiod:
$260,000 2008
$370,500 2007
$385,000 2006
Total drop -32.5
Look carefully at this - THIS IS A DROP of 32.5%!!! Alexandria and PWC are only 20-25 miles apart. ARE YOU REALLY SO DENSE AS TO NOT SEE THE EARTHSHATTERNG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN -6.7% AND -32.5%????
Now that I have answered your pathetic little question, perhaps you can answer one of mine. Above I showed you 39 straight months of inventory comparisons for ARL & PWC that show HUGE discrepancies and DEVASTATING consequenses for prices. DO YOU REALLY HONESTLY TRULY NOT SEE THE DIFFERENCE???
"Do you remember the severe beat down KH gave you awhile back where you said "resales were in the mostly in the core"
Actually I was wrong, it was CTR that gave you the beat down:
http://recomments.blogspot.com/2008/02/case-shiller-impacts.html
Thats the great thing about these blog entries - they stick around. I have to say that he or she delivered one of the more spectacular, one sided, crushing arguments that I have ever seen. And to have it happen on your own blog, how embarassing for you!!!
You see a pattern here? You seem to get into trouble when you go on and on about the core areas of DC without ever mentioning the flaws in your arguments. I show you 39 months of huge inventory discrepancies, and you have nothing to say? Your graphs and comments on all the other cities and even the DC area in general "appear" sound. However, seeing your obvious biases toward DC's core area and your inability to address critics head on, perhaps your readers should quesiton all of your entries.
For example, you graph Houston as being largely flat - but how do we know thats the whole picture? Maybe its flat because its at 30 months of inventory? Maybe it just plateaued earlier? Probably not, but you see my point dont you? Once your biases become obvious, unless you can admit them and acknowledge your shortcomings, readers have good cause to question EVERYTHING you say.
If history shows us anything, it is at this point where you will run away, but your readers deserve better than this. If you want to maintain any shred of credibility, your presentations need some retooling. There are some serious, major discrepancies between inner and outer DC areas which you cannot explain. Perhaps you can show why MRIS "months of inventory" data skews to make outer areas look much worse than inner areas (I doubt it but maybe). Perhaps you can show why DC's core is lagging the outer areas, but that given enough time, its MRIS data will become just as bad (thats what I am still hoping for personally). But to continue to go on and on about inner DC without any acknowlegement of how minor its drops have been in comparison to the catastrophe elsewhere in DC - well it just shows you need to have your head checked!
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