Sunday, April 27, 2008

Real Estate Emotions April Update

Edit 4/29/08: 2nd Edit 4/30/08, original edit removed, back to the main article on the assumption the comment section returns to gentle discussion. I encourage multiple views. I'll even go so far as to point out it doesn't matter if you buy within six months of the bottom. It just will not impact your standard of living. That said, I strongly believe in the old school mortgage rules. If you are not buying with the type of mortgage your parents bought with, you're running a high risk of being a foreclosure statistic.

But if you haven't noticed, I value graphs. Far more useful than tabular data. I also believe in plotting out the season differences too (e.g., plot by month with a new line per year)

My job involves implementing what the pendents say will never work composed of mindsets that inherently cannot agree. I'm posting less this week as I promised a technical miracle by Sunday three years ago. My best current estimate is we'll finish by Saturday! ;)

small wordsmithing edits below on 4/30/08 to 'clean up' No change in thought or conclusion.

We're continuing on in the major emotional transition state of Desperation. The amount of anger in the system seems to be oscillating with a major upswing this month. I expect anger to peak either this summer or next summer; the Ponzi victims remain upset that the news about the emperor being naked is getting out edit: active emotions peak in hot weather .

I just love this quote. Its so appropriate to the housing bubble:
Ponzi's supporters were outraged at the officers who arrested him. 17,000 people had invested millions, maybe tens of millions, with Ponzi. Many who were ruined were so blinded by their faith in the man or their refusal to admit their foolishness that they still regarded him as a hero.

To the K├╝bler-Ross grief cycle and what fraction of the population seems to be in each emotion.

Stability: 40% (Old homeowners and bubble bloggers)
Immobilization: 17% (Prices dropping? Can't be.)
Denial: 8% (No! Real estate only goes up!)
Anger: 15% (This one must be discussed)
Bargaining: 5% (Ok, we can cut the price and lead the market)
Depression: 5% (We're going to lose our home. Just let them take it...)
Testing: 5%
Acceptance: 5% (Stop payming, we're toast. Move back in with mom.)

If you compare to my previous months (eventually I'll do graphs), you'll see a shift from Immobilization to anger (another 2%). No, people aren't skipping emotions, that's just the overall trend.

Onto the investment emotions. We're deep in desperation, with Florida trending into Panic as the front runner. Note that Florida, due to their multi-year inventories, high taxes and insurance, and low wages is pulling ahead of the pack in all of the worst ways. This is the same graph I updated in January; emotions are progressing on that timeline. Option-Arms are hitting their limits and helping drive the correction and emotion changes. For most of this year we'll stick in desperation. Anyone who thinks this will turn quickly is trying to sell you something.

1. Optimism
2. Excitement
3. Thrill
4. Euphoria (market price peak) Peaked in late 2005/early 2006
5. Anxiety (I'm a long term investor, not a speculator. Lasted ~10 months)
6. Denial (Reached in October of 2006 until mid-May of 2007, ~8 months)
7. Fear (Reached in mid-May of 2007 to mid/late February 2008, ~9 months).
8. ****Desperation: Current state ***** since mid/late February 2008
9. Panic: Fall 2008 looks to be the start.
10 Capitulation: Spring 2009 through the winter of 2009. Yes, basically 2009!
11 Despondency (start of market price bottom) Not before winter 2009. Possibly as late as 2010. Much more uncertainty here.
12 Depression (end of market price bottom) Not over before summer 2011, probably later. It could be as late as 2014. Don't let anyone BS you into buying soon.
13 Hope (hey, this investment has picked up off its bottom)
14 Relief (Its almost what I paid for it...) about 2017
15 Optimism (cycle starts again)

Sellers bet the farm (house) on appreciating real estate and those days are gone. This year will only begin to shake out the more feeble 'homeowners.' 2009 is when I predict the greatest price drops (both nominal and real prices). The bottom is a long way off... We'll be into 2010 before we have enough information to guess when the bottom *might* occur.

The option-ARM resets will be the motivator in 2008/2009. Not the planned resets, but the loans hitting their limits (due to negative amortization) or when J6P realizes their overpriced McMansion isn't the road to riches they imagined and putting 50%+ of income into a failed investment is just throwing good money after bad. Recall, over 90% of Option-ARM borrowers only pay the minimum; that negative amortization is going to drive the market in 2008 and 2009 as more and more home-debtors flee the pain.

I'm being a broken record. Why? Afford ability still isn't here. The baby boomers are going to consume less housing, starting in early 2008! Those are the reasons the 2008 selling season isn't getting traction. Look at the Wells Fargo Afford ability index. Most people are still priced out by historical measures. Its getting better, mostly by price drops but a little by income increases. When the recession hits incomes, afford ability will continue to improve quickly. You get one guess how that's done.

Interest rates? If they go up it will only drive down prices faster. Mortgage payments must drop back down to a historical fraction of income. Debt to income is at insane levels.

The time to start looking is when your local news goes from covering the foreclosure bargains to why its smart to rent. Until that happens, the wanna be Trumps will be liquidating their failed mini-empires. This will drive investment emotions. Emotions, income, and inventory will drive transaction rates and prices.

This will end. We will recover. Some new industry will offer a new product we all feel we all should buy. (e.g., a la Ipods, HDTV, air travel, etc.) I'm excited about living in a country that invents multiple new industries during every recession. But which cities? Look at this list of airport traffic (indicator of economic strength). Notice that most cities keep a constant relative rank, but some have shot up, and a few are dropping off the international conscience while others have jumped onto the world stage.'s_busiest_airports_by_passenger_traffic

Got popcorn?


The Anonymous said...


Hey Neil – Christmas has come early for me:

“In regions that have taken a beating, some neighborhoods remain practically unscathed. And a pattern is emerging as to which neighborhoods those are...A recent NPR report shows home prices in the (D.C.) suburbs have fallen 18 percent while those in the District have risen 11 percent...DAVID STIFF, CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR THE COMPANY THAT PRODUCES THE CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX SAW THE TREND in other cities as well”

A main premise of your arguments for why the core of DC has fallen has been that the huge divergence in median prices in DC Metro Area was incorrect and "differences between areas measured by CS are inconsequential" and "CS is the best thing we’ve got". Now your vaunted Case Shiller has turned against you and blown your flawed arguments out of the water!!!

The best part about this, they brought in the chief economist at Case-Shiller to CONFIRM that the DC core is holding up. Think about this for a second - the article could have used the CS guy as a contrarian – he could have just as easily said, "this isnt accurate – in reality all DC areas measured by CS are going down" – he didn’t because its just not true. And this isnt some lackey either. This is the CHIEF ECONOMIST of Case Shiller who is CONFIRMING that there is in fact a DIFFERENCE between the inner core and the outer areas.

Its so rare to have complete and total vindication like this. With one brief statement from your beloved CS they have chopped your legs out from under you and completely undermined your argument on why the DC core is going down. That is it for you – its OVER - you are DONE, you have nothing left to stand on. GAME OVER!!!! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!

The Anonymous said...

Neil – I still cant believe I came across something as definitive as this. I mean, for months now, you have been maintaining prices in the core were falling just like the rest of the DC area despite: (a) just about every other reputable DC blogger out there saying there is a difference in prices (b) MRIS data showing price declines were DIFFERENT (c) huge discrepancies in inventory levels and (d) MSM reports saying there was a difference. In the face of overwhelming evidence there is a DIFFERENCE, you insisted this was not true because of your beloved Case Shiller, but now that has been taken away from you.

First you tried to say CS showed price declines in the core because re-sales were in the core. You kept this up until you were embarrassed by overwhelming evidence that resales were mostly in the suburbs and exurbs (of course you didn’t admit you were wrong – you just quit making this bogus argument). Despite this defeat, you continued to maintain CS was accurate about core price declines and that there really isnt much difference between the core and outer areas. Your whole blog is riddled with statement after statement about how “CS is best indicator out there”, “CS is the most accurate”, “Median sales mean nothing because we have CS” - basically CS is beyond reproach. Now, your worst nightmare has come true – CS itself has come out and said there is a DIFFERENCE between core and outer prices in DC – oh what to do, what to do!!!

For starters, you are almost certain to run away – you have a long history of doing that when presented with tough questions. But going forward, what are you going to do about this?

If you ignore this and keep making the argument, you can be sure I will be right there to show how wrong you are. You cant risk another embarrassment like that so clearly that wont work.

If you come out and say CS is wrong, it would basically go against everything you have been saying for months! Is maintaining your bias against inner DC worth undermining everything you’ve been saying about the other bubble areas for months? Hmmm - I know you are severely biased, but even you aren’t this foolish.

If you say CS is wrong only about core areas you run the risk that your readers see right through your hypocrisy and recognize that your data analysis cant be trusted.

Maybe you can parse his statement – after all David Stiff didn’t say explicitly DC was holding up – maybe you can say NPR misquoted him or go with a Bill Clinton style “depends what the meaning of ‘is’ is”. If you do, all I can say is wow – just wow.

Maybe now is the time to admit you were wrong about inner DC. After all, it maintains everything else you have worked for on your blog, and your most loyal readers will forgive you – no one expects you to be perfect. I know its not fun, but maybe now its time to swallow your pride, take your lumps and move on.

I really doubt you will admit this though – you are just too stubborn and too wedded to the idea that core DC is dead. Its sad really – you are done in by your own hubris and arrogance.

I think it is possible that you could just quit blogging altogether – or switch to comment moderation so you can keep dissenters like me from calling you out. In fact the more I think about it, the more I think this is likely to be the case.

To all the fellow readers of Neils blog, understand that if you never see a post from me again, it is not of my own doing. Understand that Neils blog is not a place for dissention and if you do you run the risk of banishment. Neil, this is your moment to prove me wrong – your readers are watching you – good luck.

stealthcat said...

Oh bloody hell, anonymous drone.

I like to visit Neil's blog because he focuses on the SouthBay part of LA, where I live and work.

Maybe he touches on other areas from time to time, but it's not a DC or an Austin blog, so just chill.

Rosalie said...

I agree with you stealth...this guy needs to relax and chill. ***ANONYMOUS***can not even use his real name??why? the more you sit here and continue to bash this blog the more desperate you seem. Truth is everyone has to be blind to not see what is going on in the real estate market "overall". I mean really what is your purpose of all this?? in the end we as buyers will do what we please...maybe you should worry about yourself and not other people so much. We are all adults here. Anyway if I could "block" you I would just because you have become a pest more or less. Have fun spending countless time trying to get readers away from this blog, in fact your actions have made me more loyal to this site. :)

The Anonymous said...

"I like to visit Neil's blog because he focuses on the SouthBay part of LA, where I live and work.

Maybe he touches on other areas from time to time, but it's not a DC or an Austin blog, so just chill."

So, he "focuses" on SouthBay but only "touches" on other areas huh? Did you know that since the beginning of the year he has more graphs focusing on "core areas of DC" than he does for SouthBay, or anywhere else for that matter? Think about that - "core DC" - the tiny little area 10 miles square with less than 700 sales last month!

Sorry, but ever since he dedicated
his energies to this miniscule area thousands and thousands of miles away from him, he has to recognize he is going to attract criticism. He shot his mouth off on areas he knew nothing about and now he is caught up in a quagmire from which he cant escape (short of admitting he is wrong which wont happen).

Normally, I would have waited for another DC focused post before I unloaded on him, but once I saw this timely article I could not resist. That said, the best way he can keep critics like me silent is either admit his mistakes, or avoid blogging about tiny areas he knows nothing about in the first place. The choice is his.

The Anonymous said...

Rosalie - the reason I am here is because Neil spends an inordinate amout of time posting on these 2 DC area blogs: (7 posts in the last 24 hours)

Whenever anyone over there questions him on something he doesnt like, he just runs away (for example why does he care so much about this tiny little area - ask him yourself, he wont answer).

I would have been content to keep my posts over on those blogs since thats the only area I really care about. However once he started spreading his "core DC" venom here I decided to bring my criticism to the one place he cannot hide.

Oh and on the contrary, I welcome more eyes going to his site. As far as I am concerned, the more people see his biases the better!

wannabuy said...


Thank you for being a dedicated bear. I'm not blocking, yet... I'm thinking of it as the obsessive need to post multiple times before there is even another comment. Oh, the occasional double post is normal...

I do try to keep a national perspective.

"The Anon"

You totally ignore my post. Real estate investment emotions have gone south and are trending down. You are a product of investment emotions. In particular, your posting accentuate the current emotional state. Hey! I'll add that to the main post!

Wow... four very long comments by the anon. Is the core doing better than the outer? Yes. What, down 13% as of February? I believe I quoted 15%. Ohhh... I was so off! You've proven me so wrong. /sarcasm. ;)

I'll post the Case-Shiller data later. Its very interesting. Nationally, every metropolitan area dropped.

Got Popcorn?

wannabuy said...

Addendum to "The Anon":

Please Buy! I'd be so happy "The anon" if you bought. :) Nothing could make me happier than if you purchased a home soon in Alexandria or inner DC. You claim to rent. Take the plunge and buy.

Got Popcorn?

Rosalie said...

Hello Neil,

I like your revised blog. As I mentioned before I am 23 years old and have been in the market since I turned 20. I work in rancho cucamonga so I have been looking in areas such as Riverside and Corona...but the beginning of those cities, I do not want to end up to far south. Anyway, I am addicted with the whole situation. I hold my real estate license and have access to the MLS and from there I can see when people are foreclosing and are in pre-foreclosure, i.e. notice of default, trustees sale, etc. I started collecting fliers at end of 2005 and just to see how many homes in my area have dropped it's insane!..3,500 sq.ft are at 310K, when previously listed at above 600k. Of course now if you go further down south into these cities they are now at roughly $240k!! And your right afford ability is still not here. Combined my husband and I make a measly $150K and we have to go below $300k to realistically afford the mortgage and other costs.Another example...back in 2006 we placed an offer of $350K because we were still unsure of the market and someone overbid on us and now I looked into it and although they are not selling the home yet they are in "notice of default". There are still people purchasing above their "means" so those will probably fall back into the market in 1 or 2 more years. But, by then prices will be even lower with all the inventory available. I admit more than anything I want to buy...but patience will be a virtue in this case, worst case scenario if we still wait 2 more years we will have more money saved. I'm surrounded by friends and family in foreclosure and it is sad. But in reality it is greed that led them there in some cases. For a while my husband and I were "picked on per se" because we are "fools" for throwing our money away and renting at $600 (personally i think that's great). Sure, I would like to live on my own without roommates but in the end I am the one who is debt free and roughly saving $2,500 a month. I want to live in my home comfortably and not check by check and when I have kids I want to be able to take them out, etc. My real estate license has solely served me for the purpose of analyzing the market for my purchasing decision. There is not even really comparableness anymore, homes are selling at whatever they can sell for really. Keep up the great blogs!!!

The Young Bear


The Anonymous said...

Neil – lets try a new approach. Your point about the anger in my comments is correct but that anger is directed more at you by (what I previously thought was) your incredible inability or unwillingness to answer or even address any of the serious flaws in your argument that I show you. Im going to tone it down because I am now beginning to believe that instead of being biased, obstinate and unwilling to concede anything, perhaps you truly don’t understand what I am trying to point out. This is probably because I have been more focused on unloading on you instead of trying to articulate my point.

So here is the deal, I will tone it down a ton, and in exchange, I want you to try and answer a few questions of mine as directly as possible. The key here is to be as DIRECT as possible. This means you will have to answer some things that you have purposely avoided in the past. For example, if I ask “based on MRIS data isnt Culpepper doing far worse than Arlington”, I don’t want you to respond, “why did Wells Fargo put them all on the declining market list” or “graph it and get back to me” or “define doing far worse” or not respond at all.

This is not to say you cannot defend yourself. Quite the contrary, this is your opportunity to show me where I am wrong and possibly change my mind. Thus, an answer, “Sure Culpepper is far worse than Arlington, but it here is a separate county by county indicator that shows they truly are much more alike than you suggest” is fine and we all may learn something here. Agreed?

Lets start with definitions. For the following, I am going to assume “Core Areas” means Arlington, Alexandria & DC the tiny 10 mile by 10 mile area in the center of the DC metro. “Outer Areas” means the 20+ counties that make up the rest of the DC metro area measured by Case Shiller. To keep things simple, well focus on the 5 VA counties closest to the Core Areas (Just like Harriet does). These are Loudon, PWC, Faquier, Culpeper & Clarke.

Now that we have some ground rules, as far as I can tell, your arguments include among the following: (a) ALL areas in the DC metro area are generally down. (b) there may be minor differences in drops between the Core Areas and Outer Areas, but nothing significant. and (c) the best thing we have out there to measure drops in all areas by is Case Shiller. Is this correct?

My argument has been (a) ALL areas in the DC metro area are generally down (same as you). (b) All the county by county data out there suggest there is a trend emerging with the Core Areas doing much better than the Outer Areas, and (c) (most recently) based on that story I sent you, it looks like Case Shiller supports this. This is because in a story highlighting a trend where Core Areas are doing well, and Outer Areas not, the Chief Economist from Case Shiller indicates he saw the trend.

With regard to this trend that I and possibly Case Shiller are talking about, here is the data to support it all from MRIS which you have referenced many times yourself. Now you have as much info as I do, please answer the following:

A. For 2007, median prices in the Core Area are -1.44%, +2.47% and -0.24%. In the Outer Areas median prices are -9.26%, -7.88%, -6.12%, -12.21% and -16.12% It looks to me that for 2007 there is a distinct trend here - Core Areas far better than Outer Areas. Do you agree (i.e. do you see this distinct difference)?

B. For the first 3 months of 2008 median prices, in the Core Area they average -3.07%, -7.91% and +9.54%. For the same period, median prices in the Outer Area have averaged -14.14%, -27.56%, -11.3%, -14.42%, and -16.61%. Do you see a difference and or trend here?

C. For the last 39 months, (since the peak of the market) Core Area “months of inventory” have averaged 1-2 months 2005, 4-6 months 2006 & 4-6 months in 2007. only one time has any of them hit double digit inventory (Alex 10.18 Jan 08). During that same time, Outer Area months of inventory, have averaged 1-2 months 2005, 6-10 months 2007 & 9-17 months in 2007. Note, here I ony looked at only Loudon & PWC. I dont have Culpeper, Clarke & Faquier, but considering they are all currently 20 months now, and once hit as high as 46 months (Clarke Dec 2007), I think its safe to say my averages are conservative. Do you see a difference and or trend here?

Now assuming you have addressed those, lets look at Case Shiller a bit:

D. You used to say “Case Shiller is based on resales which are mostly in the core”. That was until CRT showed us that Outer Area resales, exceed Core Area resales, by about 10:1. Despite him providing MRIS data showing he was right, you never did admit this. Will you now admit that Outer Area resales, exceed Core Area resales by about 10:1?

E. Since reales in Core Areas are only about 1/10th what they are in Outer Areas, this seems to suggest that Case Shiller is influenced far more by what happens in the Outer Areas than the Core Areas. Is this correct?

F. Case Shiller has consistenly shown large declines for the DC area, but it has never in any way differentiated or attempted to differentiate between Core Areas and Outer Areas. Yes they have differentiated by price points (what you refer to as "nice areas") but not by geographic areas. Is this correct?

G. I showed you a story that suggested there was a trend in that Core Areas are doing better than Outer Areas. In that story, the Chief Economist of Case Shiller said he saw the trend. As you read it, please tell me what “trend” this is he was talking about.

OK Neil – there it is all laid out in a nutshell for the world to see and judge. My gut feeling is that you will answer to some extent, but that overall, you are going to do your best to evade answering directly, but this is your chance to prove me wrong. If you at least make an attempt to answer many of these in a point by point fashion, I may ask for a clarification here or there, but overall, I promise to be far more civil and pleasant to deal with from here on out.

In that regard, I want to commend you. I have really assailed you lately, and you have by and large remained a perfect gentlemen. If this is in fact a new beginning I want to say for the record that I am sorry - I stand 100% by all the facts and data I provided, but the insults, condescending attitude, etc. was uncalled for.

Finally, while I do hope that you will meet me at least half way, I do have to mention - no offense here but you have a history of avoiding questions that may undercut some of what you have been blogging. Please recognize that I put alot of time into this because I truly believe this is all fair and correct. Thus, if despite my efforts to make amends and put data out in a easy to comprehend manner, you do simply avoid me, I promise we will go back to the way were.

The choice is yours - good luck.

wannabuy said...

Thus, an answer, “Sure Culpepper is far worse than Arlington, but it here is a separate county by county indicator that shows they truly are much more alike than you suggest” is fine and we all may learn something here. Agreed?
Sure I will answer direct. But not a barrage of questions that can take a long time to answer. Many of the questions you say I'm avoiding I have answered you before... but let's start fresh.

A. Agree. (Direct enough?) Core areas are doing better than outer and will see an overall lower decline than the outer areas.
B. I see a different number from the data I pulled from Harriet, but I agree 100% the outer areas are falling faster. I've agreed with this before BTW.
C. lol. Yes, the outer areas have dreadful inventories. Often measured in years. But I'm tracking my own data which is hire than the MRIS data... but that is neither here not there until I have enough data.
D. I agree resales are higher in the outer, but the outer areas include a disproportionate number of sales that are not flagged as resales by Case-Shiller. That is not a nitpick, but one quirk of Case-Shiller. It is biased towards older established neighborhoods that have a history of resale.
By what I see, I would use a ratio closer to 4:1 for sales, but by the quirks of Case-Shiller, it balances out more toward biasing towards more directly comparable sales. I'm not avoiding answering directly; I believe in knowing the mathematical quicks of all models and highlighting any that skew the output. This is my career. ;)
E. This I disagree in magnitude. More outer than inner? At least a majority. I'm not trying to split hairs. There are very important weighting factors being effected here.
F. Case shiller has poor geographic resolution as you note. As I noted, I used Jes Jain's $/ft^2 data for my 15% drop which looks to have been too bearish by 2% or possibly more. If we're going to be reasonable, I will note there is a 4% uncertainty in the data. So it could only be 11%.
G. I read his trend. But the chief economist of Case-Shiller is Shiller! So I would note that the chief economist wasn't quoted. The other partner is S&P and it wasn't his economist quoted either nor the auditing authority. Again, I'm trying to answer direct. Someone claiming to be the chief economist when the chief economist is a well known public figure... is odd.

Also note, I have friends looking to buy in the 'core areas' of multiple 'world cities.' I couldn't talk my best friend out of buying; more precisely, I couldn't talk his wife out of buying. But they just gave up buying in the West Side of LA. Why? They couldn't find anything they liked. So when they decided to 'settle' and re-compare the best values they could find... they found the prices have dropped $75k to $100k in three weeks! (~6%) So they decided to rent a much nicer place for a fraction of the after tax cost and wait it out.

I just had to reneg on a job offer to an individual who missed the last three home payments inside the beltway in DC. So this housing bubble is hitting me where it hurt: my time. More issues from the ex-urbs... but there is a reason I have a national perspective. I hire workers to be home based in... six states.

Got Popcorn?

The Anonymous said...

Neil – For the record that was a pretty direct response, I was wrong about you, and I apologize.

Its funny, I’ve been lurking for a long time Ive seen your posts so I feel like I “know” you. At the same time, because I was lurking you had no idea who I was so it was unfair for me to come after you right out of the gate. I really got pissed when I saw that scrum you had with CRT. I thought he was a bit condescending but fair. When you wouldn’t answer his question I thought “that arrogant SOB – he got caught and still wont admit to anything – he is as bad as Lance”. I do have to ask though, why didn’t you answer him?

Second, I am now beginning to think this is all one big misunderstanding. You say core DC is down but to a lesser degree than the rest of the DC area, I say the same thing, so does David, Harriet, etc. In fact, with the exception of Lance, I cant think of another bull who has said the core isnt down (correct me if I am wrong) – I think they may disagree as to how far "down" it is, but the consensus seems to be “Down”. If that is the case, I have to ask, what was the purpose of all the recent (4 months) graphs on Alexandria & Arlington? I have to believe it is in response to something one of the DC bloggers said as none of your regular readers seem to care much about core DC – can you tell me who this was directed toward?

Again, thanks for responding. I cant say I will never be a bit snarky from time to time, but if you can respond to these last few things, I promise to never be hostile or rude to you again. Cheers!

Rosalie said...

peace at last ;)

The Anonymous said...

Rosalie said...
peace at last ;)

Hopefully. Notice there was a bit of follow up in my last post. Its the type of thing (unanswered questions) that got me going in the first place. I hope Neil is just too busy to respond. Fingers crossed!

wannabuy said...

Peace at last. :)

I do have to ask though, why didn’t you answer him?
Sometimes its... just too obvious one is only being provoked. No one looks good when its obvious one party won't listen... so with how busy I am, I didn't respond. On the DC blogs, its been... antagonistic for a long time. Its the same argument... again and again.

Work is crazy. I'm supposed to be working 12 hours a day, every day, for the next 3 to 7 weeks. I'm only at home tonight as some of the people I work with want the responsibility for solving the problems on my aircraft; thank god for blackberries! Since my coworkers can do the work, I can read the blogs tonight... I spent the day with my wife doing what she wants while she can. (She is Quite pregnant.)

So there is the main reason... When she has energy... she gets my attention. ;)

Thankfully my company's technical director has arranged for me to both meet my work criteria and spend time with my wife during this important time. Overall, I have an excellent employer. In return I rotate my staff so they do not burn out and promote them when they earn it. Not to mention mentoring...

My baby and a need to rest is why you might not hear from me in August. :) I haven't blogged much about my coming child or wife as... I'm not comfortable doing so on a forum with those often take umbridge with my position. I'm very excited about becoming a daddy. :)

Got Popcorn?