Thursday, November 15, 2007

slump is a result of a weakening economy and troubled housing markets

Its not looking to be a merry Christmas. Quite a few retailers aren't doing so hot

From:
Yahoo finance on mid-level retailers

Both Kohl's and Penney reported drops in same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, a key indicator of retailer health. Kohl's reported a 2.6 percent drop, while Penney's fell 3.5 percent.

---------snip out the mid article and continue -----------------

Penney Chairman and Chief Executive Myron E. "Mike" Ullman III was quick to point out that the slump is a result of a weakening economy and troubled housing markets. The company, he said, was not doing anything wrong.

"It's not as if we got dumb all of a sudden," Ullman said.


No, but we (as a country) were dumb to let it go on like it did

Normally ra ra for the sheeple predicts a lousy holiday retail season

With Dec. 25 about eight weeks away, the retail industry is struggling with shoppers’ eroding confidence amid higher daily living expenses and problems in credit availability.
Could it be debt fatigue? Hmmmm???


At this point, there may not be much retailers can do to salvage the holiday season. And it hasn't even officially started.

It was weak across many sectors in October, from mall-based apparel stores like Limited Brands Inc. to department stores like J.C. Penney Co. Even the world's largest retailer, Wal-Mart Stores Inc., posted sales below expectations despite heavy discounting. The few standouts were warehouse club operators such as Costco Wholesale Corp. and BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. as consumers sought

out lower prices than even discounters offered.
(from above link)

The question isn't if we'll have a bad Christmas, but how bad. Since MEW is alive and well, I think it will be a single digit decrease YOY in sales. But I also predicted a stock market correction in October. :( So what is everyone else's prediction?

As far as real estate, I'll do my emotions update next week. Its really slow now. People just aren't that interested in real estate. Projects are coming due or family events are on their minds. In fact, only a few fellow bears and an occasional seller even talk about it. But there will be more discussion on the anger out there. Its the holidays, but quite a few people are not happy. But the mortgage pinch can't be helping things.

I'm thinking most of this winter's decline will be January/February (I know, the historical norm). But not just for the usually reasons. Partially due to a poor Christmas season driving the housing market down further.

Oh well.

Got popcorn?
Neil

2 comments:

Hop-Sing said...

Neil,
I like reading your posts and have sent your Reset graphs to some of my buds. I was wondering....where did you get the data for those graphs.

Anyway, just today signed the title docs to the sale of a condo I had in Scottsdale. Sold it without a realtor(primo spot) because people would always drop their info to me asking if I ever wanted to sell to call them. Bought in Feb of 05' and made 40k off the deal.

Everyone told me I should hold onto it and rent it out...and eat about $400 a month. So its gone. I think I made the right decision...but 80k would have me not even contemplating such a thought! Oh well...even sellers who have "get it"-meaning sell for a realistic price aka. not what I would have gotten in early 06'....feel the post bubble blues.
PS I'm renting a fab pad for the next two years. thanks for the insight!

Hop-Sing

wannabuy said...

The reset Graph comes from BofA.

Congrats on your sale! A coworker of mine just sold in Victorville, CA. Talk about lucky. I sent him an article on the foreclosures there...

This will get bad fast:
Many private mortgage companies will cut back sharply before the end of 2007. Fannie Mae is adding fees for lower down payments starting in March (see www.CalculatedRisk.blogspot.com for a very good article).

If FedEx is going bearish.. you know its going to get ugly.

Got popcorn?
Neil