Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Neighbor's observations

I have a really nice neighbor renting the townhouse next to me. He told me his "renting story" yesterday.

In sum:
1. He was ready to buy in early 2006, but a relative's health problem consumed too much of his down payment.
2. He now recognizes that the home he was going to buy has "lost so much value" that not buying saved him more money than he paid for his realative's health care.
3. He is a J6P (Zero math or forecasting skills. I mean that in the nicest way possible... but its the truth.)
4. He'll renew his lease (yea! Good neighbor) and continue to save for his down payment.

Basically, if this guy knows the market is going to continue to drop for a year, everyone does. Now I should be nicer, his skill set pays more than mine. :) Hey, good for him. No one would buy a script from me! ;) And yes, this conversation came out as he discussed being on the picket lines. But a sad turn of events is all that kept him from being financially ruined. :(


Why does this matter to those of us that are not sheeple? Simple: The sheeple are going to the sidelines. When they do, they camp there at least 18 months. The first six months of their stay on the sidelines results in a moderate price drop. The last 2/3rds of their time on the sidelines? Fast price drop.

Don't buy in 2007. Don't buy in 2008. Heck, if you read my real estate emotions series, you'll see that previous patterns point to the greatest price drops occurring in 2009! Sit back, relax and make sure you

Got popcorn?
Neil

2 comments:

tj & the bear said...

Despite preparing for this strike, the studios seem to be shutting down production on TV stuff pretty fast this time around. Meanwhile, they're reportedly not interested in quick negotiations. Think they're sending a message???

wannabuy said...

TJ,

I wonder if the studios are trying to break the guilds. They do seem ready for a long strike. The actors join in in April (IIRC). With the ROI of the studios not making investors happy... they have to seem to be doing something.

But the strike will have to go on for months to mean anything. By then, we'll see what its doing to sales of high end homes. ;) Everything I'm hearing... its cutting the sales here in LA.

Got popcorn?
Neil