But this data tells quite a story. Sadly, it has personal information so tied in with it, I haven't had time to scrub it. This is the *full* data set for LA county though.
Since I'm only interested in single family homes, that is all I will plot. Also, the data is on a bunch of excel spreasheets in varying formats, so there was quite a bit of effort just to sort out the data for a few zip codes. I have all the torrance zip codes... but whenever sales were low, it was "n/a" if the data was ugly and a high value if it showed what the REIC wanted people to see... Grrr...
I really think the graphs speak for themselves. But I'll still comment. ;) These are my first choice zip codes to buy into. Look at that sales graph! It tells us clearly this area is *not* done dropping.
90275 is my first choice zip code to buy into. As with Case Shiller, we can see that the price per square foot peak was in 2006. Just earlier than Case-Shiller!
Look at the sales trends. Notice the long term decline? It looks like people were 'priced out forever' before this data series even started. This leads credance to the theory that the bubble really started earlier than many people suspected. Certainly earlier than I was aware.
I've been curious which areas 'align' where I wish to buy. 90274 was easy too eliminate, its low sales rate and variety of unique (and pricey) properties had me cutting it first. But then I noticed that these three zip codes align on a price per square foot basis... Notice how they all align? So much for it being 'different here.'
We're not ready to buy now. But this data strongly suggests that waiting is the best strategy. We hear the noise of the recovery... there might even be a blip. But the long term trend is clear. Prices and sales have yet to recover. Sales must recover 12 to 18 months before prices. So waiting is pretty safe. :)
I'm still shocked how 90275 dropped from 60+ sales per month to where 20+ sales in a month is considered something for the CAR to brag about. Note: All 5 zip codes should be seeing 20+ sales per month! Not one out of five! Most actually should be seeing 30+ per month... None are above that threshold (yet).
Now to take off the bear's hat. One truism that the bears have held is the downturn would be as steep as the uptick. So far, its at a much lower slope (I 'eyeballed 90275). Does that mean?:
A) 'green shoots' is sort of working...
B) The worst lies ahead
C) The theory was wrong
They say the 'trend is your friend.' Well, this is an interesting sales trend (same sales per month plot, with a few trendlines). The sales trendlines do look like they are approaching a singularity. This, to me, implies we're at or near the sales bottom. Certainly by next February. That isn't the same as a price bottom though.
