Thursday, August 20, 2009

DQ news, July

I mentioned before that July and November are two months where the data should be just lumped into the quarterly numbers. Unless something had really broken out, the data for those months can be very noisey.

So I charted data from Sales aren't great for a July. But nor were they bad.

Price per square foot is back to 2004/early 2005 levels. I notice 90278 is slipping back to 2003 values. This could be interesting.

From my perspective, I find the linear drop in price per square foot in 90275 very interesting. Its a linear trend down. $17/ft^2/MONTH! The trend was for zip codes of interest to be dropping $30/ft^2/YEAR! I will be very curious if this trend continues. Since 90278 and 90274 did not drop as 90275 did... I suspect its a trend that is about to be broken. As a potential buyer. :( But then again, one more month of this trend erases a bubble year, in four months!

Basically, nothing broke the downward trend. We have only August left of the 'sales months' of the year. Overall, the dq data (LA times) showed a lot of areas struggling to sell.

Got Popcorn? (Thanks for the icon on CR Ken!)


The Anonymous said...

Well im sure you are pretty stunned by Case Shiller by now. Most of the Blogosphere is.

So in hindsight it looks like your "2009 as the period of greatest declines" was a little belated. But only by about 6 months. Much better than those who were a year or more behind you - boy do they have egg on their faces.

Unfortunately for me the rebound in DC is now so strong we have surpassed NYC as the market holding on to the most of its bubble gains. Why did I have to pick DC - but such is life...

The good thing is price declines may not be over. Yes even the seasonally adjusted index is up, but some credible sources doubt the strength of the adjustment. Thus, we could decline into next year. Still, the chance of 09 being the year for biggest drops is dead.

With the exception of DC, I thought your early predictions were good. I would have to grade your predictions as a B- as compared to reality of what we have seen. However, if this was a scaled grade, compared to the sometimes absurdly doomish blogs out there, you would get an A. Probably a "selection error" issue -- those who "want" to see big declines are more likely to set up blogs...

So what happens to CS graphs? Emotions? Are we done here?
I hope not you will continue to detail the recovery as you said. Maybe be like the guy from housing panic and did a 2nd blog called soot and ashes detailing the recovery. Just a thought...

wannabuy said...

I'll continue posting. Where I live, its not done. Its delayed. What I predicted for so far in 2009... was pushed out six or so months.

I believe the correction will continue this Fall/Winter. When? I'm not even going to try and guess. But by March 20th 2010 (first day of spring), something will have happened. Something big. I do not see stocks at fundamental values nor much of real estate. Some areas are at fundamental values. Some real estate even below!

Mostly due to Alt-A loans going nuclear.

Oh, I can live with a B- for 2009. But what grade would those receive who completely missed the national downturn? I missed the stock market recovery of 2009. Cest la vie. But I also missed the drop before then. Again, Cest la vie.

Got Popcorn?

The Anonymous said...

"Where I live, its not done. Its delayed."

1.5 years ago when DC bloggers insisted some areas were flat while others were crashing, you argued that wasnt possible because case shiller shows its going down.

Now case shiller is going up and you argue its not done where you live. A bit of irony there dont you think???

Im just ribbing you because I think you are correct (now) --there are areas going down while CS shows them going up. Just note the argument you are making now is the same one you rejected when the shoe was on the other foot.

wannabuy said...

Now case shiller is going up and you argue its not done where you live. A bit of irony there dont you think???

15.2% of California mortgages are not being paid! (ok, includes just missed one payment, but that number is high). Irony? That isn't a debatable number, but a scary fact (see link from CR below). Seriously, 40% of the 'working age people' in California, are not working (last seen in 1977, hot topic on CR tonight). CA unemployment is at 11.9%.

This graph scares the heck out of me:

I'm watching properties sell for < $400 per ft^2 (friends, not yet in the stats) with views. I still think homes in that condition, with views, should be going for $450/ft^2. I shouldn't be a real estate optimist... (yet)

There are areas of LA ready to go up. Lancaster has multiple zip codes where the average price per square foot is well under $50. Owning there is now cheaper than renting. I've congratulated friends buying there as anyone who has a secure job is better off buying there than renting.

We're not even the worst off state... Florida, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Ohio, Indiana, and Georgia are unfortunately in a world of hurt with California.

Housing starts going up (in price) *after* employment. VA has improving employment. Good for VA. CA doesn't... (yet, I think we will hit bottom 1H 2010). We'll turn around eventually.

But I still think our bottom will be February 2011. I haven't seen anything lately to make me believe that date is sliding nor anything to make me believe I'm being too pessimistic.

Got Popcorn?

Judy said...

Hey Neil - been following your wise comments for a while on HBB.

So the prices in the South Bay this weekend still haven't tempted to jump yet?

Lawrence Ocampo said...

For those folks who has enough money not to care so much about prices, I say you check out Texas Hill Country Real Estate - it seems to be the best place to live in.

Gprofessionals said...

If we compare the reports of all the four quarters, results are like mixed bag. Ups and downs was a common trend in all the quarters, whether it is sales figure or price figure. Let us see how market turns in November month, as tax credit is ending this month.
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Paul Bear said...

It's fun to see graphs that chart the trends in various economic factors. Real estate is one of those bellwether industries. Massive up or down swings affect everything else in the economy.

Paul |