Wednesday, July 01, 2009

Inventory

I'm chuckling reading the comments from my last post. Yes, Inventory is down, but I still find it interesting. I also find there is a disconnect. Homes show up in the local MLS already with an offer. While I can only point to one agent doing this, I wonder, are homes being marketed before being put on the MLS? Significant? I doubt it, but interesting.

Ok, Inventory is way down. Everywhere I've been tracking. Heck Phoenix is below 40,000 (I lack detailed historical data as OCRenter used to have great data before that blog went private, so I didn't bother to track it.) Remember when it was 64,815 in Phoenix? 3/26/2008 is the peak I recorded. But there might be a day when it was fractionally higher. Today Phoenix is at 37,828!

Palm Beach (which by Ziprealty includes areas too far away to really be palm beach, but I was lazy and just used their inventory) peaked at 132,636 on 2/28/2008 (which was estimated to be a multi-year inventory at the time). Now its at 90,478. So Palm Beach county is still in deep chit.

Do note my south Bay LA only includes Torrance, Redondo Beach, RPV, PVE, Rolling Hills, and Rolling Hills estates. Yes I realize Hermosa and Manhattan beach would be among the high end areas... but I skipped to only tracking where I wish to consider buying.

Oh, I've been recording data since 11/9/2006 just for the record.

So in celibration of the Bear chit (California IOUs), I bring inventory graphs!




24 comments:

Michael said...

I suppose shadow inventory is hard to estimate. It still is a factor.

Likely people who could "get out" in 2008 now have fewer choices with prices down 20%.

Westside Bubble said...

Inventory is still at high levels in and around Santa Monica, per my new charts for the end of 1H 2009. A little down from record levels earlier this spring, but still high.

Per OCRenter, you can write him (ocrenter at gmail) for access to his blog. Although it's gone pretty quiet lately.

wannabuy said...

Likely people who could "get out" in 2008 now have fewer choices with prices down 20%.
So true.

I see a huge amount of shadow inventory. Quite a number of homes are 'for sale' but not in the MLS (thus not counted).

Thanks Westside, I'll e-mail him. While it might be quite, I can at least update a few graphs. :)

This weekend's parties were... surreal. We went to three (one on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday). At every one, at least one guest was really bummed due to layoff/lack of work. At least one person was doing *really* well. (For two I know them well enough to know they were not lying.) Everyone is worried.

All of the dentists commented that their business is down for routine work, but they're making it up in 'emergency work.' (This happens every major recession.)

There is more. The upper middle class is getting hit. I also think that the well to do are getting hit hard too.

There was more, but I'll blog it once I do a little more background research (I do not want to make assumptions).

But everyone knew someone who had been laid off...

Got Popcorn?
Neil

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