I was recommended this blog and its well worth the time to read it. For those looking into Long Beach, or lofts, I found it an excellent read.
Yea... Its on CR's blog roll too. Time is too precious to review all of them!
http://www.longbeachhousingblog.blogspot.com/
Got Popcorn?
Neil
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Neil - you may not find this as funny as us Arlington watchers do but its freakin funny!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4T1RMuoQnKo
Our latest MRIS report came out:
Sales UP YOY
Volume UP YOY
Average Price UP YOY
Median Price UP YOY
Clearly its skewing as high end is now selling. But just as it skews up now, it skewed down during the "bursting".
Looks like Case Shiller article last summer was right -- Last in, First Out, Least Hit. Oh well "the bubble" was fun while it lasted.
The Anonymous:
CR's latest article would agree with you on the tiered Case Shiller:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/tiered-house-prices.html
or CR article
DC's high end has done ok. The "hook up" for low end housing is interesting also. But to say the bubble is over? Maybe soon for DC. Major inflection points tend to see all three lines converge (which it almost has for DC). But when they will converge for DC is during the weakest selling time of the year. Other cities (see the San Fran graph in the CR link) have merged the lines for a year+ before swinging up.
This charting does indicate DC should be near a bottom. I've already admitted I was wrong before. DC could see appreciation in 2010.
Why could? My LA is doomed in 2010. Price drops are spectacular. My wife found three more homes listed for prices not seen since 2003. Every month, where we wish to buy, the deals get about $20k better (maybe $30k). But that does not effect DC.
What will? It will be curious to see what the Feds do to prop up California. We're $40billion/year in the hole. This state effects the inflows of money from Asia... until it stabilizes, the US housing market will not. I'm assuming you saw CR's post on Fitch's prediction that California real estate (coastal) having 36% more to drop and nation (IIRC) 12% more.
This is just a wave... I'm waiting to update my predictions after seeing how things change once we're into the 'buyers market' time of year. :)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
By the way, interesting article from the brookings institution regarding metro economic performance in several categories.
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/reports/2009/06_metro_monitor/06_metromonitor.pdf
I think the whole "bubble" thing is pretty much over and now its just a matter of economic performance. If so, DC which is in the top 20 overall should emerge first. LA on the other hand is getting crushed and will take a while to recover. Anyway, you might find this useful in making your economic forecasts.
Neil - sorry, but this is just too good. JTR has taken your "emotions" series and turned it on buyers of 2009-2010:
1. Denial. "Im not going to overpay, the only house I buy will be the one I can steal from the bank"
2. Anger. "Why the hell isnt there any good inventory at reasonable prices"?!?!?!
3. Bargaining. "hey this ones ok, lets make a lowball - were still stealing it right"???
4. Depression. "ive been outbid again, im just gonna wait on the sidelines til the market comes down, economy gets worse, banks unleash shadow inventory (name your favorite rationalization here)"
5. Acceptance. Buyers, worn out by the experience capitulate and put in a full price bid with an escalation clause.
How sad but how true...
http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2009/06/five-stages-of-buyers-grief/#comments
The Anon,
Lol
But look at CR's latest on DC:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/house-prices-and-unemployment-rate_21.html
But the thing is, California is falling apart. Too many people are priced out. This has made the local divisions more expensive (lower profits) than the divisions elsewhere.
Where I want to buy, prices are dropping quick.
I'll blog this...
Got Popcorn?
Neil
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