Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Philly Fed Map

CR has an article up on the Philidelphia Fed Map.

Its worth looking at:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2008/12/philly-fed-november-state-coincident.html

Or broken up:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
2008/12/
philly-fed-november-state-coincident.html

Points to make:
1. California isn't leading the pack down.
2. There is a core of 'flyover' states doing 'ok'
3. Virgina is doing well while Maryland is falling apart. Interesting...
4. All of the Automotive production states are dying.

What worries me is that only two high population states are even doing ok. None of the high population states are growing strongly. Most of the high population states are really hurting...

I do wonder how Oregon and Washington turned south so quickly... that has bad implications... Take some time to look at a port. Its scary out there...

Got Popcorn?
Neil

6 comments:

spunky said...

Uh, Neil, Virginia is NOT doing well.

The only thing selling in the outer 'DC 'burb's are foreclosures...

The Anonymous said...

Spunky - the coincident index says nothing about houses. It is about the economy in general. What Neil is pointing out is the VA economy is still growing (ever so slightly), while the MD economy has gone into reverse - thats all.

wannabuy said...

The Anonymous is correct...

I did *not* expect to see growth in the VA economy in this report. I strongly feel where a prediction errors that it should be noted (unless the error is within normal 'noise').

I've errored in two ways:
1. The overall economy is hurting more than I predicted.
2. Certain areas, like VA, are doing better than I predicted.



I remain a bear. But I've also correctly argued California might get the news, but it is *not* leading the pack down. Its just the 900 lbm gorrila limping economically. I'm very curious which state goes TARP first.

Let's put it this way, I have friends who work for the automotive industry and its horridly ugly. Yet... Their work has been for Toyota or Honda lately! As Scoobie says... rhooo rhooo.

Merry Christmas
Neil

The Anonymous said...

Neil - Im sure you know Case Shiller is out - big declines. Also, it looks like they are now doing a seasonal CS index too:

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html

So it turns out you were right - there is indeed a sesaonal aspect to prices even in Case Shiller. It still seems strange to me, but it is what it is. Nice call.

The Anonymous said...

Also heres the latest on Arlington

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/30/AR2008123002875.html

A year of doom and crashing prices throughout the US and all Arlington has to show for it is a pathetic -2% for residential real estate.

I think I am snake bitten when it comes to picking places to live. The housing gods know I can afford it now, they just dont want to see me get a good deal!

Did you ever see that movie "The Cooler"? In it, Steve Buchemi had incredibly bad mojo and it rubbed off on people. Thanks to this he was hired by casinos to stand next to gamblers on a hot streak and they would instantly start to lose. Well thats me in reverse. I show interest in an area, it shoots up 130% and comes down only -2%.

Maybe I should get a job working for various CA counties. All I need to do is express interest in housing in that area and it is certain to stagnate. Do you have a number for any officials out in the inland empire I could call?

Maya said...

Interesting predictions and insights - this will certainly be a year to watch. And hopefully we'll all learn some valuable lessons about the market, credit and decision-making.

Also thought you'd be interested in seeing this year's results from the United Van Lines migration study:

http://www.unitedvanlines.com/mover/united-newsroom/press-releases/2008/2008-united-van-lines-migration-study.htm

Good luck with the new rental!