Monday, October 20, 2008

DQ reports California Sales

DQ news link

Let's see...

SoCal Home sales are now ~50% foreclosures.
At the county level, such foreclosure resales ranged from 36.8 percent of September resales in Orange County to 68.9 percent in Riverside County. In Los Angeles County foreclosure resales were 39.1 percent of all resales; in San Diego 47.3 percent; San Bernardino 63.1 percent and in Ventura County 44.0 percent.


SoCal mortgages:
Before the credit crunch hit last August, 40 percent of sales were financed with jumbos, then defined as over $417,000. Last month just 13.2 percent of purchase loans were over $417,000.

Wow... 13% over $417k. Folks, that is a lot of homes for sale with no qualified buyers. This report is the most qualified ever.

Oh, sales were up. Higher than August. But its also evidence that the only buying is extreme bargain hunting. Several internet companies announced layoffs recently (redfin, Zillow, and a few minor ones). Anyone know the concentration of jobs in the Westside? I've seen some very poorly written articles on job losses from Santa Monica, but they are not of the quality worth linking to. Is there a real trend? Or is it just fear?


To think, all of the layoffs I have foresight into do not start until 2Q2009 and really do not get going until 3Q2009 (per current plan). I'm not thinking this will be a big Christmas season. Oh... quite the opposite.

Got Popcorn?
Neil

3 comments:

stealthcat said...

This:

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081020/business_us_pentagon_satellite.html?.v=1

isn't going to help the south bay, either...

wannabuy said...

"This program is sinking fast,"
Is the best quote from your link Stealthcat. This hurts Boeing, Northrop, and Lockheed. If they stick with AEHF... that is a ~2,000 job hit to SoCal. :(

Got Popcorn?
Neil

The Anonymous said...

Neil - did you see Mr. Mortgage's spin on these numbers?

http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/10/20/socal-home-sales-you-cant-read-the-headlines/

I posted under the name "ANTI SPIN". Right now, it says “my comments are awating moderation” lets see if he squelches them as they indicate dissent from his horde of lemmings shall we?

Don’t get me wrong – his data isnt bad, its his analysis I question. Notice how Calculated Risk can sometimes call a good news report good and a bad news report bad? Mr. Mortgage wont do this. In his world every report is spun to be bad (just like the NAR where everything is spun to be good). I trust CR even when I don’t like what he says. I seriously question Mr. Mortgages motives – seems like he just wants to keep the party going at all costs.

Here are my comments (which I think he shall quickly delete). Feel free to review these yourself and chime in.

Anti Spin Said:
October 22nd, 2008 4:02 pm Your comment is awaiting moderation.

I hate to say it, but I think our fearless leader, Mr. Mortgage is spinning us a bit here:

MR MORTGAGE SAID…
“First off you can’t compare last year with this year…However, you can compare the past three months, which were all down from near 40k statewide in July, to 37k in Aug and 36k in Sept. That trend is lower.”

ANTI SPIN REPLY:
For starters, dont we make fun of the NAR for their constant spin of Year over Year numbers when it shows what they want and Month over Month numbers when it doesnt? Why is Mr. Mortgage now resorting to MOM analysis?

Second, notice how the article is for SOCAL, but his proof that the “trend is lower” is citing numbers for the WHOLE STATE…(apples vs. oranges anyone)? In SOCAL, sales for the last 3 months are 20,329 (Jul), 19,366 (Aug) and 20,497 (Sept). These sales numbers are not trending down, they are flat at worst (some would say rising).

MR. MORTGAGE SAID:
“Now, let’s talk about real ‘organic’ sales and not foreclosure-related sales, as organic sales are at all-time multi-decade lows.”

ANTI SPIN REPLY:
So when is a sale, not a sale - when Mr. Mortgage tells us it isnt? Oldtimer and Mortgage Analyst are correct - a sale is a sale, period. A buyer could care less whether it was organic or not.

MR MORTGAGE SAID:
“Sept 2008 SoCal organic sales are down 66% from three years ago. This goes to show in living color how bad off the housing market actually is.”

ANTI SPIN REPLY:
Hold the phone here - 3 years ago was Sept 2005 - still in the heart of the bubble. A good number of sales back then was the merry go round of flippers selling to flippers. Sales should be nowhere near where they were when the Ponzi scheme was in place. To be sure, I dont think this months sales numbers are healthy, but for Mr. Mortgage to even point this out (as if Sept 05 sales are somehow healthy) makes me question his motives.

MR MORTGAGE SAID:
“Additionally, more than 10k homes in SoCal entered the foreclosure process or were actually foreclosed upon during the month of Sept meaning the problem is getting worse because more inventory is coming in than going out.”

ANTI SPIN ANALYSIS:
If you read the article and do the math, of the 20,497 sales in SOCAL in sept, about 10,300 were foreclosures. So we have 10K coming in and 10K coming out. How is that worse?

Mr. Mortgage replied (as Admin, the 3rd comment in this thread:)
“When respect to the 10k foreclosures sold, 60k foreclosures either entered the pipeline as notice of defaults or were actually foreclosed upon in CA in Sept. Therefore, inventories did not fall. 10k foreclosures sold is nothing. We need 50k a month selling.”

ANTI SPIN ANALYSIS:
Again, why does he cite the WHOLE STATE number (50K) on one hand but the SOCAL number (10K) on the other? Somthing isnt kosher here people!