Saturday, September 13, 2008

Knife catchers

Every few months at work some coworker taunts me for not buying. Invariably, its when they've called a bottom. So far, the best in this group has had to watch a comparable house sell down the block for $80k less than they bought. Only one has listened to me and accepted that real estate bottoms are not "V" bottoms but rather long flats. That decision saved him $50k in two months. (The home is still for sale, but that much cheaper.)

At some time there will be a bottom. I'll buy when I'm certain that the total downside risk is less than $100k. Where I want to buy... isn't there yet. But I've seen quite a bit of my competition buy in suburbs that, to me, are less desirable than where I'm going to buy.

Demographics are in my favor. Most baby boomers cannot retire without cashing out their real estate (primary residence and investments). This year was the first year of accelerated retirements. Next year, at my company, the retirement rate is set to double.

Its going to be interesting next year to see how the credit crunch progresses. Heck, its interesting this weekend! (Go to to see the discussion.)

Got Popcorn?

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