Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Case-Shiller

Looking at this month's Case-Shiller is almost like an expected flash back. The only new trend is that quite a few cities seem to have hit a steady decline rate.

Those approximate decline rates of housing value per month. I like to graph everything in terms of the gain/loss rate per month. What is the appreciation/depreciation?

Phoenix: 3.5% drop in value per month
LA: 3.75% decline per month
San Diego: 3.75% decline per month
DC: 2.25% decline per month


Las Vegas is an exception. Its dropped off its horrific 5%+ per month rate down to 4.5%. It seems to be searching for its decline rate.

What's up with Miami? It suddenly is increasing it decline rate. What happened? I'm familiar with Florida weather; we haven't hit the horrid weather that drives away buyers... But my articles require graphs!





Look at that trend. So much for real estate always going up!




Now let's look at the derivative.



I've already commented on how many of the cities are losing value at a near constant rate. Las Vegas is plummeting. Its just been a really bad 2008 for that city. Every month in 2008 had had Las Vegas losing value faster than the 20 other cities in Case-Shiller.

My previous comments on DC also hold. Its dropping at a lower rate than the other bubble markets. I expect it to "bottom out" at a lower afford ability than its historical norm.

I had coworkers try to tell me the bottom was only 3 months away. Look at those price curves. Look at how price momentum (up or down) tends to hold and slowly roll into a bottom. A bottom that's a long way away.

Got Popcorn?
Neil

5 comments:

sandman said...

That first graph really demonstrates that all RE is local ;)

Seriously though, look at the nice, tight curve for Phoenix. Last one up and leading the way down.

wannabuy said...

sandman said...

That first graph really demonstrates that all RE is local ;)


Isn't it? ;)

Got Popcorn?
Neil

tj & the bear said...

I'm amazed your coworkers would argue anything with you these days. For rocket scientists, they're not that bright! ;-)

Skye said...

Nice blog...I found my way here via some comments you made on CR. I was looking through some of your older posts and fully agree with your views on engineers being able to afford homes.

Im a married 29 year old with a daughter renting in north redondo....been here since 2004...and have been fascinated/dumbfounded with what has happened these past 5 years in housing. Last year, we were contemplating moving out of the area in order to afford a home, but with the drastic declines here recently, we'll wait it out a few more years, save more cash, and see what kind of deals show up.

Anyways, keep up the good posts. BTW, I also follow this manhattan beach blog and didnt see it in your links:
http://mbcon.blogspot.com/

wannabuy said...

we were contemplating moving out of the area in order to afford a home, but with the drastic declines here recently, we'll wait it out a few more years, save more cash, and see what kind of deals show up.
Smart! Sorry for the tardy reply. I worked through the weekend.

I also follow this manhattan beach blog
Are they posting regularly? When I last tracked it, there were too long of time periods between posts...

For rocket scientists, they're not that bright! ;-)
Oh, its not the scientists that disagree. Its the executives. ;) One of the scientists told his wife "we cannot buy until Neil says its ok." :)

Got Popcorn?
Neil