Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Dam Break?

Edit: Another Blogger has determined that ziprealty is double counting properties that have been relisted with another broker; thanks Bearmaster! There is new inventory on the market, but how many are truly new? I'm going to check ziprealty daily until it settles out. However... homes should not be relisted under a new MLS number unless they have been off the market the required time to become a fresh listing. Why is this happening this year?!? It didn't happen in 2007... I think its due to desperate sellers.

The old article as originally written (note: data is still what comes up on ziprealty):

I had to rescale my graphs for the South Bay portion of LA.

Why? Inventory is exploding! I'm in Shock.

Torrance, Redondo, RPV, and El Segundo (not graphed) have had inventory spikes that floor me. Is it the writers stike?

City-----Inventory on 2/3/08-----Inventory on 2/5/08----Status
Hermosa Beach-----------101----------192----------------New Record!
lawndale----------------155----------260----------------New Record!
lomita-------------------69----------128----------------New Record!
Manhattan Beach---------154----------302----------------New Record!
Palos Verdes Estates-----54-----------54----------------Peak 2007 was 67
Rancho Palos Verdes-----163----------309----------------New Record!
Redondo Beach-----------366----------686----------------New Record!
Rolling Hills------------20-----------20----------------Peak 2007 was 24
Rolling Hilles Estates---43-----------43----------------Peak 2007 was 50
Torrance-----------------599-------1,043----------------New Record!

We're in uncharted territory folks. Peak inventory was 10/29/2007.
Most of the south Bay just blew through 2007. Yes, Torrance alone almost has the normal south Bay inventory for this time of year. Those jumps in inventoryare amazing. Can I believe the data? This is the housing equivalent of a stock market crash. Seriously.

Is Ziprealty malfunctioning? Or is the LA economy broken?

Got popcorn?


bearmaster said...

Hey Neil,

I corresponded with Zip Realty today and this is what they told me:

"Our LA metro has 8 MLS's. Since
those MLS's continue to merge we
are seeing some overlap (these
increase over time). Most recently,
Greater South Bay Regional merged
into Multi-Regional - which we are
still de-duping. Last year there have been 2 mergers in LA.

Obviously, our goal is to have
everything de-duped and to have a
single view of all of the data. We
are definitely working towards
that. We currently integrate over
60 MLS systems across the country,
so our data guys have been keeping

For now, I can say that duplicate
listings is certainly not our
intention and we are working to fix
this issue. As MLS systems merge,
we're kind of working with a moving

I think I can safely say that I am not seeing the dam burst in a flood of new inventory, relative to last year. My database shows 96 "new" inventory records for January 2007, and that was probably an overcount since the database was new and had not yet really been populated. So some of what I called new in Jan 2007 was probably relisted stuff. For January 2008 I have 71 *new* records.

My guess for Redondo Beach, at least, and for now, is that inventory is coming on at pretty much the same rate as last year - maybe slightly higher. However, sales are WAY down relative to that inventory.

When we've gone through another half year of this I'll be in a better position to make YOY comparisons of new inventory coming online. It's a bummer to have to wait and let the data mature, but oh well.

wannabuy said...


Great research! Thanks for looking into the nuts and bolts.

Got popcorn?

wannabuy said...

Just a note: Some of the communities I track now have a ziprealty inventory of 1 or 2! For example, Palos Verdes Estates has an inventory of '1'.

So something is very messed up. A great thing to happen at the start of the "spring selling season"...

Got popcorn?