Thursday, November 16, 2006

Again, not much

I believe that this blog needs one post a week to capture the snapshot... but the holidays are coming up and I have other thoughts on my mind.

I will mention my fiance' and I wend house shopping again last weekend (not seriously, look at the rumor post). What we noted:

1. Almost empty homes
2. Realtors flat out telling us its a buyers market and that we can bid $50k under asking price.
3. The one other home we met other buyers, we stopped to chat how that was weird.
4. Prices are down $250k from when we started looking! That's $250k in 270 days... or $1,000/day! (In rough numbers.)
5. Prices under $800k are becoming common.
6. Where did all of these new $2 million+ homes come from?
7. Far too many "Zero down" signs in the beach cities. Whisky Tango Foxtrot? I'm sorry, if you don't have a down payment, what are you doing looking in premium markets?

Gee... and people wonder why I'm waiting...

I did have fun mentioning to one realtor how we weren't going to buy until my company decided if we should relocate out of state or not. She asked "why would you move." I noted we hire quite a significant number from out of state, but that it was getting impossible to bring people in due to home prices.

Oh, that look was priceless! ;)

I stand by my prediction that prices will drop 30% to 60% in nominal dollars from the peak. Sigh... how long will that take? I do know that 2Q2007 is continuing to look like the Schwerpunk for the housing market. (Schwerpunk=Point of main decision.)

Neil

5 comments:

ElSegundoRenter said...

Engineers usually get it right because we think with common sense (cents). Anyway, I'm wth you, South Bay prices are coming down, but still waaaay tooo expensive! But, this is still just the beginning. AND, if your company does relocate a division or two, SB prices will slide even further. BTW, my wife and I are both Engineers...Civil and Chemical. Thanks to your blog!

Anonymous said...

Just discovered your blog & enjoy your writing. Nice work.

wannabuy said...

Thanks for the entries. It amuses me that my comments that not much is happening seem to generate quite a few comments. ;)

Its going to take a while. If companies do commit to move people out, it will drag this out for a bit. Will it happen? Some. We've already sent people to Pheonix amoung other out of state locations. But only a few...

Neil

Anonymous said...

My wife and I are happily renting in Rancho Cucamonga and will continue to rent until sellers either get drastic or go broke sitting on their duffs hoping against hope that a miracle will occur.

IF YOU REALLY WANT TO SELL YOUR R.C. HOUSE, IMMEDIATELY DROP YOUR PRICE AT LEAST 20% AND DO IT NOW! The sooner you do it, the sooner I might be interested in looking at your house. I'm NOT gonna buy it until you get serious with your price cuts. Guess what... no one is buying anything and it ain't gonna change anytime soon. Get smart and get the ball rolling. My next door neighbor had an open house after dropping his price $10,000. Whoopie fricken doo. No one came all day.

A cookie and a few closing costs aren't going to do it. Sellers need to get serious. I laugh at the real estate agents (even mine who I like a lot)... "we are still selling homes... blah blah blah." Whatever.

The arrogance of sellers and their agents is amazing. Phrases like "won't last at this price" make me chuckle. The verbiage on the listings has changed a bit. Now you see stuff like "very anxious seller" and "very very very motivated seller." As if the number of adverbs makes a difference. The one I like the best: "will entertain all offers." Are they stupid or something?

Fire your agent if your listing doesn't have photos, has photos of only the outside, etc. I cannot fathom the agent who posts BLURRY photographs on the websites in this kind of market. Mind blowing. Just goes to show you the quality of individuals still in this business, and how completely out of touch many agents are.

Get rid of the cottege cheese ceilings, the worthless media niches that you put couches in front of and which fits no modern tv set... the ugly, shiny, white kitchen and bathroom tile squares, the $8 home depot light fixtures and the master bathrooms that have no place to hang a towel that you can conveniently grab on the way out of the shower.

Take a close look before you buy. Opening the dish washer in the kitchen of my current rental makes the kitchen island a major liability. Look at all the walk-in closets where the door gets in the way of hanging clothes on about half the shelves.

Have you seen some of the new construction in North Rancho Cucamonga and Fontana? The builders put full bathrooms on the main floor with no bedrooms or options for bedrooms. Do you think people will be living in the garages? How about the 1.5 story house with the one upstairs bedroom with 90% of the whole house's linen closets at the top of the staircase. Yeah, sure, I look forward to running upstairs for sheets every time my daughter pees in her bed.

Mind boggling that builders aren't using half a brain on their designs. Seriously, go through some of the houses they are trying to sell for a million dollars and the added gift of $250 per month gate (HOA) fees that will drop to about $100 once the 13th phase of the development is done. That should be about 2030 or so. Let me know if you find anything you like. I can't find a house that I walk into and say "wow" this is where I want to raise my family.

Within walking distance of Victoria Gardens is code for "cannot fit a picnic table in the back yard because it is too small."

We aren't going to throw in the towel any time soon. Hopefully houses out here will soon be priced at what they are worth: about 20% less than now.

Anonymous said...

i just cannot digest california real estate market, How can people afford houses 8-10 times their salary??

how come people are not moving out in huge numbers??

why are the companies not moving out (i guess they are still there because they can still get employees)

i would love to work for silicon-valley companies.....but where would i live and at what cost??

someone please shed some light.