The “U-haul index” is supposedly an accurate indicator of job flow. What does this mean? Quite simply this, if you can rend a U-haul from city X to city Y and vice versa, which way is cheaper? The jobs are flowing in the *expensive* direction.
Now, one has to be careful in the interpretation of the results. For example, if I pick
But if we look at a costal start, we minimize the impact of this. However, the longer the drive we experience a greater chance of price interactions. Thus, we must look at multiple destinations and forget trips to
So what are the U-haul costs from
90277 to Austin Texas: $6,439 Return: $575 Yes, over 10X more expensive!
What can we conclude?
1) In every instance, its cheaper to go to
2) U-hauls are pilling up in Austin Texas. Wow! Its not that far from
5) This says nothing about population growth! Nothing! Why? If someone is not affluent enough to be middle class, they don’t hire a U-haul, they just fill up their one car and go (e.g., students, illegal’s, etc.)
6) This index says nothing about the upper middle class or big corporate moves. However, I’ve participated in enough corporate moves to know that with every campus shutdown, there are those who treck out on their own. So while the U-haul index will miss the magnitude of a large corporate relocation, it won’t miss the entire effect.
Basically, Los Angles from a middle class housing and employment perspective… is going to get hammered. We’re not looking at a subtle downturn what so ever. Expect
This is but one more indicator to show that the market is heading downhill for
So what does this have to do with a blog about buying a house? Simple. One strikes when the iron is hot, not when its at a temperature that would make an eskimo proud. Wait before buying in Southern California. Your wait will probably extend into 2008 or even 2009, but don’t buy in 2006 and beware the falling knife 2007. For home buyers, the iron is frostbitten right now.