Enjoy the 4th!
Today, a BBQ to celebrate my Nana's birthday; but also another celebration. My best friend and his lovely wife had their first child yesterday. A boy. Since soon I shall become a father, I'm excited for them.
Minyanville points out the flaws in the employment stats! A must read.
Mish talks about ghost towns:
Since these haven't been written off yet... The worst is yet to come. This Fall for a crisis, for it to really hit the fan will take until Spring of 2009. Why? The financial system has become 'brittle.'
Bearmaster has more data on Redondo:
Bakersfield Bubble talks about how Lehmen is losing their shirts on bad investments.
I happen to agree with the comments that the next stage of this downturn will be high end properties pushed lower by stock losses:
Bubblemeter has a story on more bottom calling:
I swear... its a bunch of REIC kids saying "Are we there yet?" The true bottom isn't until 2011 to 2015. I still see 2009 having the greatest price declines. Ok, not for the areas that have already lost 60% to 70%+! But for the 'core areas...'
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Showing posts with label vacation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label vacation. Show all posts
Friday, July 04, 2008
Thursday, June 07, 2007
I'm back! Impression of Hawaii
I'm back a bit early from the honey moon; a side trip was canceled, you see yours truly is sick and the wife chose to go back to work to preserve vacation. No biggie.
Ok, update on Hawaii.
Kauai: Lovely island, well worth the visit. However, say good bye to so much of the green space. The ranch where we zip lined (east side, near Priceville) is being sold off to Bill Gates and friends to create a retreat for the uber rich. (They even stretched the Princeville airports runway so that small business jets can get in an out rather than being limited to prop-jobbers.) The amount of construction everywhere was mind boggling.
Kauai emotions: Anxiety (the 9% uptick in tourist dollars, primarily from west coast fliers has them thinking they're ok. They probably are for a few more months ok too... but lots of properties for sale. In some condo complexes as much as five units.
The big Island of Hawaii. My favorite Island of this trip (even though we did more activities on Kauai). Some concern... tourist dollar growth is below inflation and they know it. The USA's largest new suburb is going up on the big Island (under the volcano... sell it to me baby!). A huge fraction of building being built, many for sale.
Emotion big Island of Hawaii: Denial
Oahu: Fun island even when you are sick. ;) Fast passed. The economy appears to be driven by big-spending Japanese tourists. However, the number of Japanese tourists is down 10%. We stayed in an awesome hotel, Prince Hawaiian, that caters to the Japanese customer (but lately has been forced to switch to Priceline/business customers that pay 33% to 66% of what the Japanese tourists were paying. The staff of this hotel is amazing. They also will happily chat with you. The kid who drove the courtesy van was quite worried. He gave the following reasons for the Japanese slowdown (and that is all that is hurting Oahu right now).
1. ANA and Japan Airlines have raised faires.
2. Cheaper vacation alternatives for them in Asia/Australia.
He also noted the Japanese were selling their Oahu properties to reinvest elsewhere.
Emotion on Oahu: Fear No doubt about it. Tables were available in restaurants that never have tables available post memorial day... something is up.
Yes, no statistics, just a few observation. I was enjoying an incredible honeymoon. :) My favorite part? The helicopter tour. All the stats are from a big Island newspaper that is somewhere in my laundry filled luggage. ;)
Got popcorn?
Neil
Ok, update on Hawaii.
Kauai: Lovely island, well worth the visit. However, say good bye to so much of the green space. The ranch where we zip lined (east side, near Priceville) is being sold off to Bill Gates and friends to create a retreat for the uber rich. (They even stretched the Princeville airports runway so that small business jets can get in an out rather than being limited to prop-jobbers.) The amount of construction everywhere was mind boggling.
Kauai emotions: Anxiety (the 9% uptick in tourist dollars, primarily from west coast fliers has them thinking they're ok. They probably are for a few more months ok too... but lots of properties for sale. In some condo complexes as much as five units.
The big Island of Hawaii. My favorite Island of this trip (even though we did more activities on Kauai). Some concern... tourist dollar growth is below inflation and they know it. The USA's largest new suburb is going up on the big Island (under the volcano... sell it to me baby!). A huge fraction of building being built, many for sale.
Emotion big Island of Hawaii: Denial
Oahu: Fun island even when you are sick. ;) Fast passed. The economy appears to be driven by big-spending Japanese tourists. However, the number of Japanese tourists is down 10%. We stayed in an awesome hotel, Prince Hawaiian, that caters to the Japanese customer (but lately has been forced to switch to Priceline/business customers that pay 33% to 66% of what the Japanese tourists were paying. The staff of this hotel is amazing. They also will happily chat with you. The kid who drove the courtesy van was quite worried. He gave the following reasons for the Japanese slowdown (and that is all that is hurting Oahu right now).
1. ANA and Japan Airlines have raised faires.
2. Cheaper vacation alternatives for them in Asia/Australia.
He also noted the Japanese were selling their Oahu properties to reinvest elsewhere.
Emotion on Oahu: Fear No doubt about it. Tables were available in restaurants that never have tables available post memorial day... something is up.
Yes, no statistics, just a few observation. I was enjoying an incredible honeymoon. :) My favorite part? The helicopter tour. All the stats are from a big Island newspaper that is somewhere in my laundry filled luggage. ;)
Got popcorn?
Neil
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
Had more important stuff to do
There is a great thing about being a renter, I'm not worried about my home's value. Thus, for a bit I didn't think much about the housing maket. I didn't have any inclination to blog.
Instead my time has been with friends. I want to congradulate my best friend Nick and his new bride Jen. Their wedding last weekend was incredible! Please join me in wishing them the best possible start to their new life together.
For life isn't always about the price of homes, inventory, stock markets, imploding loans, etc. Then again, the bears argument that if you put everything into your home, you just couldn't have a wedding like theirs: large, fun, and well done.
Do take time to go over to OCrenter's inventory blog. Its growing:
http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/
Want some information from an honest realtor? Jim's blog has become a nearly daily look for me:
http://www.bubbleinfo.com/journal/
Don't miss taking an occasional look at the implode-o-meter. Who knows, maybe your lender is gone next?
http://ml-implode.com/
Oh, I'll get back into blogging. And the rumors at work are getting very interesting. They're starting to be very specific about which group is going to be moved out of state. (Thankfully, not mine, yet.)
One real estate thought I've had is what if the market stays flat? Then I do get moved out of state and thus I cannot lose.
If you're waiting for relocations to effect home prices, you have another 5 to 7 months of waiting. It won't be until then that the big moves (that I know about) start shuffling people. Yes, Lockheed and Boeing moved people to Colorado over the Christmas break... but that wasn't enough to make a difference. With more moves scheduled after school ends... we'll begin to see the impact then.
But it won't be much of an impact during 2007. What will happen is companies will simply get tired of waiting and thus plan the moves during 2007; they'll happen in 2008. Thus another reason I do not believe its wise to buy before fall of 2008. :)
I hope you've been enjoying yourself. My current job situation makes me feel lucky; its stable and pay is fair. Hopefully you're doing well too.
Neil
Instead my time has been with friends. I want to congradulate my best friend Nick and his new bride Jen. Their wedding last weekend was incredible! Please join me in wishing them the best possible start to their new life together.
For life isn't always about the price of homes, inventory, stock markets, imploding loans, etc. Then again, the bears argument that if you put everything into your home, you just couldn't have a wedding like theirs: large, fun, and well done.
Do take time to go over to OCrenter's inventory blog. Its growing:
http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/
Want some information from an honest realtor? Jim's blog has become a nearly daily look for me:
http://www.bubbleinfo.com/journal/
Don't miss taking an occasional look at the implode-o-meter. Who knows, maybe your lender is gone next?
http://ml-implode.com/
Oh, I'll get back into blogging. And the rumors at work are getting very interesting. They're starting to be very specific about which group is going to be moved out of state. (Thankfully, not mine, yet.)
One real estate thought I've had is what if the market stays flat? Then I do get moved out of state and thus I cannot lose.
If you're waiting for relocations to effect home prices, you have another 5 to 7 months of waiting. It won't be until then that the big moves (that I know about) start shuffling people. Yes, Lockheed and Boeing moved people to Colorado over the Christmas break... but that wasn't enough to make a difference. With more moves scheduled after school ends... we'll begin to see the impact then.
But it won't be much of an impact during 2007. What will happen is companies will simply get tired of waiting and thus plan the moves during 2007; they'll happen in 2008. Thus another reason I do not believe its wise to buy before fall of 2008. :)
I hope you've been enjoying yourself. My current job situation makes me feel lucky; its stable and pay is fair. Hopefully you're doing well too.
Neil
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