tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27885619.post6369336264323925815..comments2023-11-03T02:41:15.906-07:00Comments on Real Estate comments: Some Inventory Graphswannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27885619.post-72921633732359007982008-11-25T09:04:00.000-08:002008-11-25T09:04:00.000-08:00Drop The Rent!!!At HometownRenter.com we understan...Drop The Rent!!!<BR/><BR/>At HometownRenter.com we understand that you want to get the highest rent for your property. Our advice to owners is to make sure to stay competative in the market. A property not rented in most cases is another mortgage payment paid. If the property is worth $1,000 a month but everyone in the community is at $1,000 a month, the chances of you renting your place are very slim. If you drop it to $950 you will be able to rent your place fast and not miss another month.<BR/><BR/>Well qualified applicants are aware they are a hot commodity in this era of tarnished credit and lost jobs. They are shopping their well qualified applications out to the large inventory of investment property on the market. How do you attract them? Drop the rent! Gimmicks do not work--these people have worked hard to keep their credit scores up, their incomes stable and their rental history in tact. Drop the rent...it really is that simple! Prompt placement of a qualified applicant immediately stops the bleeding of lost rents, continued advertisemement expenses and the real possibility of a break in or vandalism. You may not receive top market rent--but you will see regular income that you can count on. Find your best tenants and rental properties for FREE at HometownRenter.com. Your local and national rental site.raffyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04260740207184925593noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27885619.post-85835393033289723452008-11-12T15:48:00.000-08:002008-11-12T15:48:00.000-08:00'...during the summer of 2009 the government will ...'...during the summer of 2009 the government will lose its ability to keep propping up the economy...until this summer [sic] bond event'<BR/><BR/>Whoa! Where did this come from?Dean Bakerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05632147754453052550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27885619.post-87530785400549793372008-11-04T07:57:00.000-08:002008-11-04T07:57:00.000-08:00Well I have to give you credit for admitting that....Well I have to give you credit for admitting that. Early on I had you pegged as a true myopic partisan, kinda like Lance, except on the other side of the spectrum. The difference is Lance never could admit he was wrong on anything -- you have -- so props to you.<BR/><BR/>Its funny, back when I was still lurking (about a year ago), I started saving predictions of yours regarding Arlington which I thought were going to be spectacular failures (i.e. huge spikes of inventory - huge numbers of months of inventory). Back then there was so much venom in your postings, I really wanted to stick it to you. So as these predictions failed, I was going to trot them out one by one, and get your reaction. Its petty, its childish, but thats how hopped up I got at one point. Now there is no need to do this as we are in general agreement on the direction of things. <BR/><BR/>Glad to see that my earlier rantings caused you to look at the data again - I too thought that much of the problem inventory was shed back before the credit crisis really got going - apparently the problem was not what I said, but the way I said it. Again, coming right out (from just previous lurking) and attacking you was wrong. <BR/><BR/>I agree with you that its not over, and I will reaffirm that if things get much worse (or much better) it can cause DC to further erode, or dramatically improve. Yet given what we see right now, I think your predictions are pretty darn good. Cheers.The Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09233501721660697800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27885619.post-23352768962557156182008-11-02T10:59:00.000-08:002008-11-02T10:59:00.000-08:00So, DC goes from one of the "Four Horsemen of the ...<I> So, DC goes from one of the "Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse" to one of "the two cities that should have the least downside risk"...</I><BR/><BR/>Yes. I have changed my opinion. :) It was really bad a year ago. Now your ex-urbs will allow growth! <BR/><BR/>I still believe the credit crisis could bring DC down. The overhang of raw land is also a downside. <BR/><BR/>DC was a horseman though. Look at the equity destruction down in the ex-urbs. But I like to look at data and move forward. The damage to the banks is done. I still see Chevy Chase bank is very weak and probably will fail (~75% chance). <BR/><BR/>Did you ever see the series "Highlander" where one of the four horsemen became a good guy? That is what I see having happened with DC. <BR/><BR/>In effect DC was lucky. It shed enough of its bubble early. I'll even admit our 'conversations' had me look into DC data to see what was different.<BR/><BR/>Now... do recall Case-Shiller really ignores condos. There is still a monster over-build of condos in DC, in particular near my favorite DC hotel, the Westin in Arlington. (Ghad... the number of new towers...) <BR/><BR/>But I'm biased towards single family homes and a surplus of nice housing, once it becomes affordable, is a boon to an area. e.g., long term I consider all of the condos in downtown LA and San Diego a potential boon too. <BR/><BR/>But not for 2009. ;) Condos in 2009 are a lead boat anchor. <BR/><BR/>FYI, part of the reason my mind changed is housing became 'affordable enough' for the military. A few years ago, the Colonels I know who are the aides for DC generals were panicking to get staff out of DC due to the cost of living. (e.g., to Huntsville, Colorado Springs, and a few other cities). They ended up having to downsize DC staff less than I predicted to get to stable levels. Cest la vie.<BR/><BR/>I'll happily point out where I'm wrong. As I've noted before, I'm always trying to improve my predictions. Bearmaster can tell you how 'over-accelerated' my first attempts were. ;) <BR/><BR/>Partially as I see certain other cities having their downward momentum accelerated much more than I earlier predicted. e.g., the cut in ad revenue for LA is like a plague over industries I never thought it would effect. <BR/><BR/>This isn't over. It will be interesting to see how I must modify my predictions in the next emotion. Sadly... excluding DC, I've tended to be too optimistic... :( I'm still not going into TJ's economy camp. <BR/><BR/>Lightsaberwannabuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27885619.post-52426603225765740512008-11-02T06:54:00.000-08:002008-11-02T06:54:00.000-08:00So, DC goes from one of the "Four Horsemen of...So, DC goes from one of the "Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse" to one of "the two cities that should have the least downside risk"...<BR/><BR/>And re: the immunity idol of Arlington (which if you had graphed it your readers would see inventory was lower than 2007, 2006 and closing in on 2005 levels), it went from "40% off in nominal dollars" to "at most a 20% drop".<BR/><BR/>Glad to see you adjust your precictions to meet the data, but I have to wonder, why were you so fixated on the devastation of this area in the first place? Was it Lance and his catcalls of "priced out forever" and "its different here" that got to you?<BR/><BR/>Yes all areas in DC had enormous gains over 2000, but a funny thing happened during the bust: some high end areas started melting down while others didnt. Lance & co were not very civil with the way they pointed this out, but still, there was some truth to their crowing - some areas are indeed "different" in that they do not burn all the way down, and some people were in fact "priced out forever".<BR/><BR/>Its not to say I am happy about this mind you, but I saw no other explanation for the huge data discrepancies we all saw. That was the thing that killed me about you. Youre obviously smart, and very accurate on macro levels. Yet you saw this same Arlington & Alexandria data we all saw and couldnt really accept that much of their gains werent likely to go away. <BR/><BR/>Well now that you have, I can honestly say that I no longer see any bias in your predicitons. "At most a 20% drop" looks reasonable to me, and defensible with based on the data out there. Thats not to say it could be much greater than that, or much less of a drop than that, but either way, at least now you arent ignoring the data that suggests these areas are different (one "high end" area craters, the other "high end" area has moderate drops). Welcome back to reality Neil, we missed you.The Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09233501721660697800noreply@blogger.com