tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27885619.post1455913798821461949..comments2023-11-03T02:41:15.906-07:00Comments on Real Estate comments: On your Mark, Get Set...wannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27885619.post-87801616158243103572008-05-26T20:56:00.000-07:002008-05-26T20:56:00.000-07:00TJ,I 100% agree we have to watch that "shadow inve...TJ,<BR/><BR/>I 100% agree we have to watch that "shadow inventory." <BR/><BR/>I'm thinking this downturn really won't get started until the government realizes they have to cut spending. <BR/><BR/>Is there a long term potential for deflation? Oh yea... One theme... patience.<BR/><BR/>For anyone looking to buy near term... think. Negotiate.<BR/><BR/>Got Popcorn?<BR/>Neilwannabuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27885619.post-24033333531087930122008-05-24T17:01:00.000-07:002008-05-24T17:01:00.000-07:00taylor,Agree completely. The bad demographics wil...taylor,<BR/><BR/>Agree completely. The bad demographics will be further exacerbated by additional factors:<BR/>* Failing pension & health benefit programs.<BR/>* Increased energy, food & healthcare costs.<BR/>* Decreased government services due to budget constraints.<BR/>All of these will force many seniors to sell homes they would've otherwise kept, simply to pay bills.TJandTheBearhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10735388072841457108noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27885619.post-1040049303156438162008-05-24T14:25:00.000-07:002008-05-24T14:25:00.000-07:00shadow inventory is something that is really goin...shadow inventory is something that is really going to catch people by surprise over the next 10 years. it's not just homes that were built/bought in the five years near the peak.<BR/><BR/>it also includes the millions of baby boomers who are planning to downsize their consumption en masse starting in 2012/13.<BR/><BR/>prices will decline far longer than anyone realizes because of this inventory. when they find their natural level, they will then lag inflation for many, many years.<BR/><BR/>excess capacity is a horrible thing. in the 80's, the oil patch ramped up production in response to an unsustainable price spike and was left with millions of barrels of excess daily production capacity. as a result, oil prices didn't move very far from cash extraction costs for the better part of 20 years (82-02).<BR/><BR/>the same thing will happen with housing. the baby boomer headwind + the millions of underwater mortgages that have yet to be marked to market will create a huge supply overhang that won't captured in the official data.<BR/><BR/>my thesis is that home prices will converge to rental equivalence and not move much for a decade or more.taylor1042https://www.blogger.com/profile/11409157588277066086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27885619.post-36353227226445259062008-05-24T04:13:00.000-07:002008-05-24T04:13:00.000-07:00This is an interesting site to watch I would think...This is an interesting site to watch I would think for those like myself who are less than well informed about all things real estate but whose sometimes better-half has it in mind to but a house in the United States some day sooner than later, which tends to make me cringe a bit as we live on the other side of the Pacific. I think that I just may link to your blog from my blog just so I can remember where you are for future reference. Cheers, mate.Iago de Ottohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15536178873273248126noreply@blogger.com